Do I ship it?

GamesHex GridHex Grid + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Robots

Only 11 developers shipped a Robot Hex Grid game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Gunbot Diplomacy, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $27k, ×44 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 10 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Hex Grid + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,356)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,863)
Top 5% $28k (exactly $27,844)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 27
Announced 10
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Hex Grid
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 90% positive over 353 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $27k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 10 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Codex of Victory older $14.99 260 69% 7.8k $117k (exactly $116,922) Ino-Co Plus
War of the Human Tanks older $9.99 339 91% 10k $102k (exactly $101,598) Yakiniku Banzai
WARBORN older $24.99 51 76% 1.5k $38k (exactly $38,235) Raredrop Games Ltd
Gunbot Diplomacy $4.99 186 86% 5.6k $28k (exactly $27,844) Sleepy Sentry
Deep Fringe · EA $19.99 45 88% 1.4k $27k (exactly $26,986) Bosoneon Studio
Tactical Annihilation $15.99 56 98% 1.7k $27k (exactly $26,863) B.G. Game Studio
Vactics older $10.99 50 98% 1.5k $16k (exactly $16,485) The Lemur Conspiracy
HexaScape: Cyber Defense $14.99 15 100% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Clockwork Origins
Hex Harmony · EA $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Pixel Builder Studio
UniWar $7.99 14 71% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) Spooky House
Sente $7.99 11 100% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Oxobox Games Studios
Orbiteers $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Northborne Studios
Catnip Wars $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Ender Knight
Rabbit Comes Home $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ZIPSTED

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.