Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Crafting game?

Crafting + Robots

Of 55 developers who shipped a Robot Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 127 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×821 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 127 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 127 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $359 → $1.6k → $18k → $17k → $1.2k → $3.0k (still earning) → $330 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $480 (exactly $480)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,097)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $42,258)
Top 5% $515k (exactly $515,307)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 143
Announced 127
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 5,855 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 127 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Generation Zero® older $24.99 29,115 75% 873k $22M (exactly $21,827,516) Systemic Reaction™
Terminator: Resistance older $39.99 16,665 91% 500k $20M (exactly $19,993,000) Teyon
TerraTech older $24.99 20,564 92% 617k $15M (exactly $15,416,831) Payload Studios
Outpost: Infinity Siege older $24.99 11,636 65% 349k $8.7M (exactly $8,723,509) Team Ranger
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
FOUNDRY · EA older $29.99 3,272 82% 98k $2.9M (exactly $2,943,818) Channel 3 Entertainment
Automation Empire older $29.99 2,584 65% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,324,825) DOG HOGGLER
Autonauts older $19.99 3,596 90% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,156,521) Denki
Nova Lands older $19.99 2,512 90% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,506,446) BEHEMUTT
Good Company older $24.99 1,480 73% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,109,556) Chasing Carrots
Arken Age $39.99 669 90% 20k $803k (exactly $802,599) VitruviusVR
Microtopia $19.99 881 87% 26k $528k (exactly $528,336) Cordyceps Collective
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
LEGO® Horizon Adventures™ $39.99 403 60% 12k $483k (exactly $483,479) Guerrilla Games, Studio Gobo
Cargo Hunters · EA $19.99 739 82% 22k $443k (exactly $443,178) Order Of Meta
Craftomation 101: Programming & Craft $14.99 636 83% 19k $286k (exactly $286,009) Luden.io
LIFE EFFECT Survival · EA $14.99 488 85% 15k $219k (exactly $219,454) LIFE EFFECT
World End Diner $16.99 415 93% 12k $212k (exactly $211,525) Andymente
Botworld Odyssey $25.00 279 76% 8.4k $209k (exactly $209,250) Featherweight Games
BREAK ARTS III $17.99 334 80% 10k $180k (exactly $180,260) MercuryStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.