Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Exploration game?

Exploration + Robots

Of 170 developers who shipped a Robot Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 345 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×841 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 345 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 345 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 170
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $809 → $1.4k → $1.1k → $3.8k → $1.9k → $2.7k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 170
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,181)
Top 5% $528k (exactly $528,336)
Developers, 2 yr 170
Released games 488
Announced 345
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Exploration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 371,209 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 97 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 345 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Five Nights at Freddy's: Security Breach older $39.99 65,350 86% 2.0M $78M (exactly $78,400,395) Steel Wool Studios
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
Horizon Forbidden West™ Complete Edition older $59.99 20,438 87% 613k $37M (exactly $36,782,269) Guerrilla, Nixxes Software
The Talos Principle older $29.99 29,237 95% 877k $26M (exactly $26,304,529) Croteam
Generation Zero® older $24.99 29,115 75% 873k $22M (exactly $21,827,516) Systemic Reaction™
TerraTech older $24.99 20,564 92% 617k $15M (exactly $15,416,831) Payload Studios
Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic $39.99 10,874 86% 326k $13M (exactly $13,045,538) Steel Wool Studios
MOTORSLICE $19.99 5,467 85% 164k $3.3M (exactly $3,278,560) Regular Studio
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Dolls Nest $19.99 2,421 88% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,451,874) NITRO PLUS
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
Arken Age $39.99 669 90% 20k $803k (exactly $802,599) VitruviusVR
Microtopia $19.99 881 87% 26k $528k (exactly $528,336) Cordyceps Collective
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.