Do I ship it?

GamesProgrammingProgramming + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Programming game?

Programming + Robots

Of 24 developers who shipped a Robot Programming game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 195% on the market; 29 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 195% on the market, 29 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Programming + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.1k → $1.8k → $1.8k → $4.3k → $2.9k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Programming + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,854)
Top 5% $204k (exactly $204,007)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 90
Announced 29
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 195% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Programming; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Automation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,910 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Programming with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Base BuildingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + Auto BattlerFair14 devs · median $14k · 14 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  4. + SandboxFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair15 devs · median $7.0k · 26 announced
  6. + AutomationFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  7. + Turn-Based TacticsFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  9. + CrimeFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 13 announced
  10. + Sci-fiFair56 devs · median $1.7k · 63 announced
  11. + FuturisticFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 25 announced
  12. + IdlerFair25 devs · median $1.1k · 29 announced

All 57 pairs on the Programming page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
Autonauts older $19.99 3,596 90% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,156,521) Denki
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Main Assembly older $19.99 1,004 83% 30k $602k (exactly $602,099) Bad Yolk Games
The Signal State older $19.99 649 86% 19k $389k (exactly $389,205) Reckoner Industries
GLADIABOTS - AI Combat Arena older $14.99 846 87% 25k $380k (exactly $380,446) GFX47
Homebrew - Patent Unknown · EA older $14.99 828 71% 25k $372k (exactly $372,352) Copybugpaste
Craftomation 101: Programming & Craft $14.99 636 83% 19k $286k (exactly $286,009) Luden.io
Crypto Mining Simulator older $4.99 1,419 65% 43k $212k (exactly $212,424) Satosha Nakamoti
JOY OF PROGRAMMING - Software Engineering Simulator $17.99 378 76% 11k $204k (exactly $204,007) Prof. Scherer
Net.Attack() - Code or Die! $7.99 510 80% 15k $122k (exactly $122,247) ByteRockers' Games
Icaria $24.99 79 75% 2.4k $59k (exactly $59,226) Blindsight Games LLC
Age Of Warbots $9.99 160 83% 4.8k $48k (exactly $47,952) VDimension
Electrogical $7.99 87 93% 2.6k $21k (exactly $20,854) kinjo
Code, Solve, Revolt! $11.99 21 100% 630 $7.6k (exactly $7,554) Joyful Jo
Typhon: Bot vs Bot · EA $19.99 12 75% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) Brightshade Games
ChipWits $10.99 13 100% 390 $4.3k (exactly $4,286) ChipWits, Inc.
SirKwitz 2 $8.99 14 100% 420 $3.8k (exactly $3,776) Predict Edumedia

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.