Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Adventure game?

Adventure + Robots

Of 288 developers who shipped a Robot Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 593 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×557 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 593 games are announced against 142 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 593 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 288
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.5k → $1.3k → $809 → $1.1k → $2.1k → $2.7k (still earning) → $330 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 288
Bottom 30% $297 (exactly $297)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,468)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,413)
Top 5% $350k (exactly $349,867)
Developers, 2 yr 288
Released games 1,070
Announced 593
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 55,980 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 179 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 593 games are announced against 142 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Detroit: Become Human older $39.99 226,411 96% 6.8M $272M (exactly $271,625,277) Quantic Dream
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
NieR:Automata™ older $39.99 115,103 88% 3.5M $138M (exactly $138,089,069) Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc.
Five Nights at Freddy's: Security Breach older $39.99 65,350 86% 2.0M $78M (exactly $78,400,395) Steel Wool Studios
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
The Callisto Protocol™ older $59.99 35,135 66% 1.1M $63M (exactly $63,232,460) Striking Distance Studios
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Horizon Forbidden West™ Complete Edition older $59.99 20,438 87% 613k $37M (exactly $36,782,269) Guerrilla, Nixxes Software
RoboCop: Rogue City older $39.99 28,196 86% 846k $34M (exactly $33,826,741) Teyon
Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic $39.99 10,874 86% 326k $13M (exactly $13,045,538) Steel Wool Studios
RoboCop: Rogue City - Unfinished Business $29.99 3,931 84% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) Teyon
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak II $59.99 669 83% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,203,999) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
METAL EDEN $19.99 1,920 84% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,151,424) Reikon Games
Hail to the Rainbow $14.99 2,533 90% 76k $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) Носков Сергей
Arken Age $39.99 669 90% 20k $803k (exactly $802,599) VitruviusVR
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
LEGO® Horizon Adventures™ $39.99 403 60% 12k $483k (exactly $483,479) Guerrilla Games, Studio Gobo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.