Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Robots

Of 23 developers who shipped a Robot Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×674 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 52 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 52 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $4.9k → $1.0k → $88k → $78k → $24k → $269 (still earning) → $119 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $537 (exactly $537)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,985)
Top 25% $78k (exactly $77,695)
Top 5% $423k (exactly $423,388)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 67
Announced 52
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 3,544 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $77k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Metal Bringer $19.99 1,109 87% 33k $665k (exactly $665,067) ALPHAWING Inc.
Astronomics · EA $19.99 706 89% 21k $423k (exactly $423,388) Numizmatic
World End Diner $16.99 415 93% 12k $212k (exactly $211,525) Andymente
Botworld Odyssey $25.00 279 76% 8.4k $209k (exactly $209,250) Featherweight Games
Boti: Byteland Overclocked older $19.99 295 68% 8.9k $177k (exactly $176,912) Purple Ray Studio
Fishing The Abyss $6.99 421 95% 13k $88k (exactly $88,284) umaaaaaa studio
ROLLING STAR $11.99 216 96% 6.5k $78k (exactly $77,695) NUL2 STUDIO
Misc. A Tiny Tale $19.99 112 99% 3.4k $67k (exactly $67,166) Tinyware Games
Chipmatic $11.99 158 65% 4.7k $57k (exactly $56,833) Molter
Broken Lens older $6.99 248 88% 7.4k $52k (exactly $52,006) Team RUN
ACUVAC: A Suck and Blow Adventure $14.99 54 98% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Curdle Games, Mr_Afroduck
The Last Craftsman $9.99 74 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) AuraTummyache

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.