Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot FPS?

FPS + Robots

Of 87 developers who shipped a Robot FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 198 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×1.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×769 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 198 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 198 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 87
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $716 → $8.1k → $3.2k → $8.3k → $2.4k → $3.6k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 87
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,878)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,834)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,151,424)
Developers, 2 yr 87
Released games 363
Announced 198
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 46,258 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 198 games are announced against 44 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Call of Duty®: Black Ops III 2015 · $284M ULTRAKILL 2020 · EA · $192M Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M RoboCop: Rogue City 2023 · $34M Call of Duty®: Infinite Warfare 2016 · $31M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
ULTRAKILL · EA older $29.99 213,450 97% 6.4M $192M (exactly $192,040,965) Arsi "Hakita" Patala
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
RoboCop: Rogue City older $39.99 28,196 86% 846k $34M (exactly $33,826,741) Teyon
Call of Duty®: Infinite Warfare older $59.99 17,489 65% 525k $31M (exactly $31,474,953) Infinity Ward
Wolfenstein: The New Order older $19.99 46,443 91% 1.4M $28M (exactly $27,851,867) MachineGames
Generation Zero® older $24.99 29,115 75% 873k $22M (exactly $21,827,516) Systemic Reaction™
Terminator: Resistance older $39.99 16,665 91% 500k $20M (exactly $19,993,000) Teyon
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Outpost: Infinity Siege older $24.99 11,636 65% 349k $8.7M (exactly $8,723,509) Team Ranger
RoboCop: Rogue City - Unfinished Business $29.99 3,931 84% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) Teyon
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
METAL EDEN $19.99 1,920 84% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,151,424) Reikon Games
Hail to the Rainbow $14.99 2,533 90% 76k $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) Носков Сергей
Battle Shapers $24.99 984 80% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Metric Empire
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
Moon Mystery $19.99 551 67% 17k $330k (exactly $330,435) Cosmoscouts
Don't Stop, Girlypop! $19.99 518 83% 16k $311k (exactly $310,645) Funny Fintan Softworks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.