Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelike DeckbuilderRoguelike Deckbuilder + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Roguelike Deckbuilder + Horror

Only 19 developers shipped a Horror Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Menace from the Deep, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×13 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2646 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 28 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike Deckbuilder + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $9.6k → $123k → $45k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike Deckbuilder + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Median $6.0k (exactly $5,970)
Top 25% $71k (exactly $70,765)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 29
Announced 28
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike Deckbuilder; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Roguelike, Card Battler
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 5,886 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $6.0k, 1 in 4 over $70k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike Deckbuilder with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PhysicsStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair43 devs · median $12k · 47 announced
  3. + DiceFair36 devs · median $9.6k · 53 announced
  4. + Tactical RPGFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  6. + ExplorationFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $7.8k · 50 announced
  8. + MythologyFair22 devs · median $6.9k · 25 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  10. + PuzzleFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  11. + CyberpunkLong shot17 devs · median $179 · 20 announced
  12. + PvPPoor odds17 devs · median $56k · 42 announced

All 60 pairs on the Roguelike Deckbuilder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ring of Pain older $19.99 3,256 91% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,952,623) Simon Boxer, Twice Different
Menace from the Deep $16.99 2,466 84% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) Flat Lab
Decktamer $15.99 2,069 86% 62k $992k (exactly $992,499) Horizon Edge
Draft of Darkness older $14.99 336 94% 10k $151k (exactly $151,099) Crawly Games
Nadir: A Grimdark Deckbuilder older $19.99 244 61% 7.3k $146k (exactly $146,327) Black Eye Games
SealChain: Call of Blood $8.99 537 56% 16k $145k (exactly $144,829) AliveGameStudio
Hunter's Moon: A Sovereign Syndicate Adventure $19.99 205 83% 6.2k $123k (exactly $122,938) Crimson Herring Studios
Tower Escape older $7.99 362 83% 11k $87k (exactly $86,771) Final Screw
THE SPIRIT LIFT $19.99 118 94% 3.5k $71k (exactly $70,765) prettysmart games
Don't Let It Starve $7.99 189 95% 5.7k $45k (exactly $45,303) Eduardo Scarpato
Sorcerer's Servant $14.99 29 86% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) 2202GAMES,LLC
Blue Hunter $14.99 28 85% 840 $13k (exactly $12,592) NourSaiFR
Boogey Hunters $6.99 46 84% 1.4k $9.6k (exactly $9,646) Keep The Engine Games
Hell Deck $1.00 199 88% 6.0k $6.0k (exactly $5,970) OFFMOON Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.