Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Incremental game?

Incremental + Horror

Of 105 developers who shipped a Horror Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 122 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 290% on the market; 122 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 290% on the market, 122 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 105
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $24k → $2.1k → $1.5k → $449 → $1.6k → $897 (still earning) → $4.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 105
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Top 25% $6.5k (exactly $6,473)
Top 5% $247k (exactly $246,817)
Developers, 2 yr 105
Released games 287
Announced 122
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 290% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Idler
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 23,283 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $6.4k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 122 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cookie Clicker older $4.99 87,916 96% 2.6M $13M (exactly $13,161,025) Orteil, DashNet
Berry Bury Berry $7.99 8,619 98% 259k $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) Get(Color) Games
Ravenous Devils older $4.99 9,477 92% 284k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,707) Bad Vices Games
Horripilant $7.99 2,928 92% 88k $702k (exactly $701,842) Alexandre Declos , Pas Game Studio
That's not my Neighbor $2.99 4,498 88% 135k $403k (exactly $403,471) Nachosama Games
Sixty Four older $5.99 1,604 73% 48k $288k (exactly $288,239) Oleg Danilov
RATSHAKER™ $2.99 3,011 92% 90k $270k (exactly $270,087) Sunscorched Studios
Paper Bride 3 Unresolved Love older $9.99 874 92% 26k $262k (exactly $261,938) HeartBeat Plus
Tingus Goose $6.99 1,224 89% 37k $257k (exactly $256,673) SweatyChair
Goblin Nest $6.99 1,177 93% 35k $247k (exactly $246,817) BadColor
Feed the Reactor $6.99 658 82% 20k $138k (exactly $137,983) Adam Travers
Execute $5.99 679 91% 20k $122k (exactly $122,016) Payne Robinson
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
Dismantling Workshop of Bio-Girl $29.99 120 61% 3.6k $108k (exactly $107,964) 渡里laboratory

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.