Do I ship it?

GamesMetroidvaniaMetroidvania + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Metroidvania?

Metroidvania + Horror

Of 43 developers who shipped a Horror Metroidvania in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 161 more are announced, ×6.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×10 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×1182 the market median. Revenue is up 395% on the market; 161 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 395% on the market, 161 announced, ×6.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Metroidvania + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.4k → $6.3k → $87k → $20k → $4.9k → $1.4k → $19k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Metroidvania + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,855)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,667)
Top 5% $561k (exactly $561,319)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 172
Announced 161
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 395% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Metroidvania; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 5,496 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 7 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 161 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Metroidvania with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ParkourPoor odds8 devs · median $80k · 40 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds12 devs · median $74k · 15 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds10 devs · median $34k · 61 announced
  4. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $32k · 35 announced
  5. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $28k · 29 announced
  6. + CollectathonPoor odds30 devs · median $16k · 78 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 33 announced
  8. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $14k · 46 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds102 devs · median $14k · 335 announced
  10. + VampiresPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 29 announced
  11. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds12 devs · median $14k · 42 announced
  12. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 37 announced

All 90 pairs on the Metroidvania page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
CONTROL Ultimate Edition older $39.99 50,602 86% 1.5M $61M (exactly $60,707,219) Remedy Entertainment
Blasphemous older $24.99 54,724 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $41,026,583) The Game Kitchen
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 62,057 96% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,215,583) Rocksteady Studios
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
ANIMAL WELL older $24.99 22,814 95% 684k $17M (exactly $17,103,656) Billy Basso
Blasphemous 2 older $29.99 16,808 91% 504k $15M (exactly $15,122,158) The Game Kitchen
Salt and Sanctuary older $17.99 20,081 89% 602k $11M (exactly $10,837,716) Ska Studios
Castlevania: Lords of Shadow 2 older $39.99 4,874 84% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,847,338) MercurySteam
Lunacid older $13.99 10,371 90% 311k $4.4M (exactly $4,352,709) KIRA LLC
The Last Faith older $27.99 4,661 83% 140k $3.9M (exactly $3,913,842) Kumi Souls Games
System Shock 2: 25th Anniversary Remaster $29.99 1,803 87% 54k $1.6M (exactly $1,622,159) Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studio… (Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studios, Irrational Games)
The Devil Within: Satgat $24.99 795 78% 24k $596k (exactly $596,012) Newcore Games
Voidwrought $19.99 936 77% 28k $561k (exactly $561,319) Powersnake
Zexion $19.99 528 90% 16k $317k (exactly $316,642) Gallant Leaf
HOTEL BARCELONA $29.99 269 71% 8.1k $242k (exactly $242,019) White Owls Inc.
Tombwater $24.99 282 92% 8.5k $211k (exactly $211,415) Moth Atlas
BAIONLENJA · EA $12.99 510 97% 15k $199k (exactly $198,747) BAION
Voltage High Society $19.99 144 92% 4.3k $86k (exactly $86,357) Platonic Partnership
The Perfect Pencil $24.99 68 70% 2.0k $51k (exactly $50,980) Studio Cima
The Lacerator $9.99 161 99% 4.8k $48k (exactly $48,252) Games From The Abyss

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.