Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-BasedTurn-Based + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Horror

Only 16 developers shipped a Horror Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ZEPHON, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $32k, ×51 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $4.8k. Revenue is up 355% on the market; 18 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 50.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 355% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2M → $35k → $29k → $162k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $4.8k (exactly $4,798)
Median $32k (exactly $31,768)
Top 25% $162k (exactly $162,132)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 85
Announced 18
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 355% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Base Building
Price point
$19.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 5,521 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.8k, median $32k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.8k. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  7. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  8. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  9. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  10. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  11. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced
  12. + MilitaryPoor odds20 devs · median $187k · 15 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
OMORI older $19.99 79,836 97% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,877,649) OMOCAT, LLC
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden older $34.99 13,305 89% 399k $14M (exactly $13,966,258) The Bearded Ladies
Ruined King: A League of Legends Story™ older $29.99 10,623 88% 319k $9.6M (exactly $9,557,513) Airship Syndicate
Othercide older $29.99 4,516 82% 135k $4.1M (exactly $4,063,045) Lightbulb Crew
Terminus: Zombie Survivors older $19.99 4,340 94% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,602,698) Longplay Studios
Hard West older $19.99 4,103 74% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,460,569) CreativeForge Games
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Wicked Seed $19.99 1,376 94% 41k $825k (exactly $825,187) Dead Right Games
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
THYSIASTERY $17.49 309 80% 9.3k $162k (exactly $162,132) DIRGA
R-Type Tactics I • II Cosmos $49.99 94 82% 2.8k $141k (exactly $140,972) Granzella Inc.
Hunter's Moon: A Sovereign Syndicate Adventure $19.99 205 83% 6.2k $123k (exactly $122,938) Crimson Herring Studios
Deckline $3.99 294 86% 8.8k $35k (exactly $35,192) Room Games, KREIDPIX
You Are NOT Bunnygirl $9.99 106 95% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) (Just)Jordan
Cairn: Mathair's Curse $19.99 48 89% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) Ross McRitchie
Ex Sanguis · EA $19.99 45 77% 1.4k $27k (exactly $26,986) Lightbulb Crew

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.