Do I ship it?

GamesOtomeOtome + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Otome?

Otome + Horror

Only 15 developers shipped a Horror Otome in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Homicipher, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×9.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×6910 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 44 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 44 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Otome + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $4.7k → $5.4k → $1.9k → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Otome + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,680)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,391)
Top 5% $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 48
Announced 44
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Otome
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Otome; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Multiple Endings, Adventure, Dating Sim
Price point
$12.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.00.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 8,212 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Otome with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  2. + 2D PlatformerFair21 devs · median $420 · 28 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds24 devs · median $11k · 30 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds45 devs · median $9.9k · 93 announced
  5. + Dating SimPoor odds110 devs · median $7.8k · 192 announced
  6. + Interactive FictionPoor odds71 devs · median $7.8k · 126 announced
  7. + Character CustomizationPoor odds16 devs · median $7.5k · 39 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds69 devs · median $7.2k · 120 announced
  9. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds65 devs · median $6.5k · 118 announced
  10. + RPGPoor odds58 devs · median $6.5k · 121 announced
  11. + Word GamePoor odds22 devs · median $6.5k · 34 announced
  12. + MysteryPoor odds32 devs · median $5.8k · 65 announced

All 32 pairs on the Otome page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Homicipher $13.99 7,821 96% 235k $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) 八名木Games
Amnesia™: Memories older $9.99 3,721 92% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,115,184) Idea Factory, Design Factory
7'scarlet older $29.99 796 74% 24k $716k (exactly $716,161) IDEA FACTORY, TOYBOX
Nameless ~The one thing you must recall~ older $29.99 633 92% 19k $570k (exactly $569,510) Sujin Ri, Yunjeong Yun, Hyein Go, Minsu… (Sujin Ri, Yunjeong Yun, Hyein Go, Minsu Ock, Marcos Arroyo, Seona Lee, Sohyeon Jeon)
Hatoful Boyfriend: Holiday Star older $9.99 469 94% 14k $141k (exactly $140,559) Mediatonic
When The Night Comes older $12.99 289 92% 8.7k $113k (exactly $112,623) Lunaris Games
Crimson Spires older $19.99 82 86% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,175) Woodsy Studio
Veloria $14.99 100 89% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,970) WANDERING WITCH PROIECTUM
Particles of Reality older $29.99 49 89% 1.5k $44k (exactly $44,085) Arewar Games
Nicole older $18.99 76 75% 2.3k $43k (exactly $43,297) Winter Wolves
Lover's Enigma $11.99 98 87% 2.9k $35k (exactly $35,251) FallenCranberry Studio
AnnaRedux $19.99 29 79% 870 $17k (exactly $17,391) 那什么游戏制作日记
A Killer Chat! Christmas $9.99 50 100% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) rosesrot
Jezebel · EA $14.99 23 100% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Pengo Productions
Metamorph $4.99 36 91% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) Jackdaw Games
Darling, Darling... Dead? $12.00 13 100% 390 $4.7k (exactly $4,680) Chthonic Chrome Studio
Saccharine Echo $4.99 27 85% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Neverliss
Spooky Monster $5.99 15 86% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) 雉野ハチ

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.