Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Chess

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Chess Arcade game?

Arcade + Chess

Only 12 developers shipped a Chess Arcade game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Gambonanza, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180, ×0.4 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $720k, ×1519 the market median. Revenue is up 9940% on the market; 12 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 9940% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Chess
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $180 → $17k (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Chess: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $180 (exactly $180)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,383)
Top 5% $721k (exactly $721,319)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 26
Announced 12
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 9940% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Chess
effort 1 / 10 · high · fully specified rules and known engines

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Chess
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 78% positive over 2,072 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $720k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 12 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
Egyptian Senet older $9.99 200 81% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,940) Ezzat Studios
Chessplosion older $11.99 140 95% 4.2k $50k (exactly $50,358) C.T. Matthews
Hyper Chess $2.99 321 92% 9.6k $29k (exactly $28,794) Grouch, SuitNtie
Urja older $9.99 95 53% 2.9k $28k (exactly $28,472) Breaking Fourth
Tabulo $9.99 58 91% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) Noah Games
Order Automatica $5.99 58 89% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,423) New Beings
Gigachess older $3.99 85 82% 2.6k $10k (exactly $10,174) Drixxel Soft
Shattered Chess $7.99 28 100% 840 $6.7k (exactly $6,712) Arti Works
Boardfall $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Follow the fun
ChessBlaze $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) TokaranGames
Cyber Classics Collection $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Blacksmith Forge
King's Beat $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Mikko Savikko
Knightfall Showdown $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Atzi_ Games, Herpai József Mátyás

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.