Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Arcade

Of 101 developers who shipped an Arcade Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 126 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $270. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 126 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 126 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 101
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $90 → $891 → $1.5k → $269 → $2.2k → $2.7k → $1.3k (still earning) → $162 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 101
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Top 25% $7.5k (exactly $7,549)
Top 5% $721k (exactly $721,319)
Developers, 2 yr 101
Released games 224
Announced 126
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 170% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Arcade; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 35,809 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $7.5k, 1 in 20 over $720k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 126 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Balatro 2024 · $72M STAR WARS Zero Company™ 2026 · $29M Xenonauts 2 2026 · $5.8M Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate 2022 · $1.8M Dungeon Clawler 2026 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Shotgun King: The Final Checkmate older $9.99 5,918 92% 178k $1.8M (exactly $1,773,625) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
Rock of Ages 3: Make & Break older $14.99 1,259 78% 38k $566k (exactly $566,172) ACE Team, Giant Monkey Robot
Roundguard older $19.99 449 80% 13k $269k (exactly $269,265) Wonderbelly Games
Runeborn $13.99 284 80% 8.5k $119k (exactly $119,195) iDream Interactive
Dicealot $14.99 218 78% 6.5k $98k (exactly $98,035) goodviewgames
Plinbo: Roguelike Plinko $6.99 379 67% 11k $79k (exactly $79,476) Raphus & Co.
Roulette Hero $9.99 260 92% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,922) CLLC Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.