Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Rhythm

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Rhythm Arcade game?

Arcade + Rhythm

Of 188 developers who shipped a Rhythm Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 228 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 228 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 228 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Rhythm
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 188
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.5k → $269 → $748 → $629 → $900 → $1.0k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Rhythm: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 188
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $716 (exactly $716)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,997)
Top 5% $384k (exactly $383,808)
Developers, 2 yr 188
Released games 629
Announced 228
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Rhythm; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 70,742 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 97 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 228 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Geometry Dash 2014 · $89M DJMAX RESPECT V 2020 · $45M Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+ 2022 · $23M Rhythm Doctor 2025 · $15M A Dance of Fire and Ice 2019 · $14M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Geometry Dash older $4.99 595,606 93% 18M $89M (exactly $89,162,218) RobTop Games
DJMAX RESPECT V older $49.99 29,808 88% 894k $45M (exactly $44,703,058) NEOWIZ
Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+ older $39.39 19,507 94% 585k $23M (exactly $23,051,422) SEGA
Rhythm Doctor $19.99 25,021 98% 751k $15M (exactly $15,005,094) 7th Beat Games
A Dance of Fire and Ice older $5.99 78,688 94% 2.4M $14M (exactly $14,140,234) 7th Beat Games
Muse Dash older $2.99 112,437 91% 3.4M $10M (exactly $10,085,599) peropero
Dead as Disco · EA $24.99 12,354 96% 371k $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794) Brain Jar Games, Inc.
EZ2ON REBOOT : R older $44.99 5,972 91% 179k $8.1M (exactly $8,060,408) Neonovice Co., Ltd., SQUARE PIXELS
UNBEATABLE $27.99 6,552 92% 197k $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) D-CELL GAMES
Rocksmith® 2014 Edition REMASTERED LEARN & PLAY $9.99 15,615 85% 468k $4.7M (exactly $4,679,816) Ubisoft - San Francisco, Ubisoft - Osaka
Rift of the NecroDancer $19.99 5,844 93% 175k $3.5M (exactly $3,504,647) Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios I… (Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios Inc.)
Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival $49.99 1,277 83% 38k $1.9M (exactly $1,915,117) Bandai Namco Amusement Lab Inc.
Sixtar Gate: STARTRAIL $24.99 1,425 86% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,068,322) Starlike Inc.
PUMP IT UP RISE $44.99 777 80% 23k $1.0M (exactly $1,048,717) ANDAMIRO
Beatblock · EA $14.99 1,237 97% 37k $556k (exactly $556,279) BubbleTabby
KALPA: Cosmic Symphony $19.99 640 84% 19k $384k (exactly $383,808) QueseraGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.