Do I ship it?

Games › Shooter › Shooter + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Shooter?

Shooter + Arcade

Of 1,151 developers who shipped an Arcade Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,332 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $80k, ×129 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 1,332 games are announced against 679 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 1,332 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,151
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $1.2k → $776 → $955 → $450 → $599 → $390 (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,151
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $419 (exactly $419)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 5% $81k (exactly $80,919)
Developers, 2 yr 1,151
Released games 4,188
Announced 1,332
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shoot 'Em Up, Bullet Hell
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 65,806 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $420, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $80k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 605 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,332 games are announced against 679 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  12. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $84k · 47 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN 2019 · $83M Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number 2015 · $31M STAR WARS Zero Company™ 2026 · $29M Starship Troopers: Extermination 2024 · $27M Broforce 2015 · $22M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN older $59.99 46,235 87% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,209,130) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
Hotline Miami 2: Wrong Number older $14.99 69,423 94% 2.1M $31M (exactly $31,219,523) Dennaton Games
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Broforce older $14.99 49,512 96% 1.5M $22M (exactly $22,265,546) Free Lives
Project Wingman older $24.99 18,407 94% 552k $14M (exactly $13,799,728) Sector D2
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
EARTH DEFENSE FORCE 6 older $59.99 6,225 69% 187k $11M (exactly $11,203,132) SANDLOT
Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun older $21.99 15,741 90% 472k $10M (exactly $10,384,338) Auroch Digital
Call of Juarez: Gunslinger older $14.99 20,869 94% 626k $9.4M (exactly $9,384,789) Techland
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Suit for Hire $14.99 3,263 92% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371) Godmode Interactive
Terminator 2D: NO FATE $29.99 1,450 84% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,304,565) Bitmap Bureau
KILL KNIGHT $14.99 1,804 93% 54k $811k (exactly $811,259) PlaySide
Vellum $19.99 1,290 89% 39k $774k (exactly $773,613) Alvios Games
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC
Zombieville USA 3D $9.99 2,184 92% 66k $655k (exactly $654,545) Mika Mobile, Inc.
Iron Meat $19.99 982 96% 29k $589k (exactly $588,905) Ivan Valeryevich Suvorov, Retroware

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.