Do I ship it?

GamesGolfGolf + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Golf game?

Golf + Arcade

Of 40 developers who shipped an Arcade Golf game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $270. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 46 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 46 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Golf + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.4k → $2.4k → $1.9k → $270 → $959 → $839 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Golf + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $40k (exactly $40,486)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 110
Announced 46
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Golf
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Golf, Arcade; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Physics, Mini Golf
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Family Friendly, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 705 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $720, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $40k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. All of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Golf with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationFair32 devs · median $1.4k · 29 announced
  2. + PvPFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  3. + AdventureFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  4. + Score AttackFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 8 announced
  5. + PhysicsFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  6. + 3D PlatformerFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  7. + PuzzleFair16 devs · median $539 · 17 announced
  8. + Local MultiplayerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.1k · 18 announced
  9. + ExplorationPoor odds14 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationPoor odds14 devs · median $959 · 26 announced
  11. + Mini GolfPoor odds38 devs · median $958 · 60 announced
  12. + SportsPoor odds67 devs · median $899 · 82 announced

All 18 pairs on the Golf page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
Cursed to Golf older $19.99 693 70% 21k $416k (exactly $415,592) Chuhai Labs
Disc Golf Masters · EA $24.99 427 83% 13k $320k (exactly $320,122) Spinoff Games
Golf Gang older $9.99 782 84% 23k $234k (exactly $234,365) Lazy Monday Games
Turbo Golf Racing older $9.99 635 85% 19k $190k (exactly $190,310) Hugecalf Studios
Worms Crazy Golf older $9.99 407 82% 12k $122k (exactly $121,978) Team17 Digital Ltd
Super Video Golf older $9.99 342 96% 10k $102k (exactly $102,497) Trederia
Infinite Minigolf older $14.99 113 72% 3.4k $51k (exactly $50,816) Zen Studios
Multiplayer Platform Golf older $4.99 293 89% 8.8k $44k (exactly $43,862) Robot Assembly
Golden Tee Arcade Classics $29.99 45 86% 1.4k $40k (exactly $40,486) Digital Eclipse
Super 10 Pin $11.99 92 98% 2.8k $33k (exactly $33,092) Modus Interactive
Up to Par $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) It's Anecdotal
Grass Gnome Golf $6.99 23 91% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) Grass Gnome Games
Tilt It! Golf $4.99 24 87% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Kautki Cave
Putt in Parks $7.99 13 92% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) tinyaxe
Mulligans Golf Game · EA $12.49 8 100% 240 $3.0k (exactly $2,998) Indie Andy Games
Disc Golf City $7.99 12 100% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Agapo Games
Golf Around 2 $7.99 12 41% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Hough Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.