Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Pinball

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pinball Arcade game?

Arcade + Pinball

Of 73 developers who shipped a Pinball Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 76 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is flat on the market; 76 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 76 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Pinball
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 73
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $921 → $748 → $1.7k → $3.3k → $600 → $1.0k → $1.2k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Pinball: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 73
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,399)
Top 5% $79k (exactly $79,476)
Developers, 2 yr 73
Released games 178
Announced 76
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Pinball
effort 3 / 10 · medium · ball physics and table feel need tuning, not text logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Pinball; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Physics, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 2,879 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $79k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 76 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Peggle Deluxe 2007 · $1.9M SENRAN KAGURA Peach Ball 2019 · $716k DEMON'S TILT 2019 · $577k XENOTILT: HOSTILE PINBALL ACTION 2024 · $462k Racket: Nx 2018 · $296k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Peggle Deluxe older $4.99 12,613 97% 378k $1.9M (exactly $1,888,166) PopCap Games, Inc.
SENRAN KAGURA Peach Ball older $29.99 796 87% 24k $716k (exactly $716,161) Tamsoft
DEMON'S TILT older $19.99 962 94% 29k $577k (exactly $576,911) WIZNWAR, FLARB LLC
XENOTILT: HOSTILE PINBALL ACTION $19.99 770 96% 23k $462k (exactly $461,769) WIZNWAR, FLARB LLC
Racket: Nx older $19.99 493 95% 15k $296k (exactly $295,652) One Hamsa
Roundguard older $19.99 449 80% 13k $269k (exactly $269,265) Wonderbelly Games
少女妖精弹珠台 Elf Girl Pinball older $9.99 804 92% 24k $241k (exactly $240,959) OWENO
Go Mecha Ball older $19.99 371 85% 11k $222k (exactly $222,489) Whale Peak Games
Pinball Spire $14.99 410 84% 12k $184k (exactly $184,377) Apparition Games
Pinball FX Classic VR older $14.99 376 84% 11k $169k (exactly $169,087) Zen Studios
Cult of PiN $14.99 184 77% 5.5k $83k (exactly $82,745) KennyMakesGames
Plinbo: Roguelike Plinko $6.99 379 67% 11k $79k (exactly $79,476) Raphus & Co.
Pegfinity $6.99 347 76% 10k $73k (exactly $72,766) Fragment Ventures AS
Pinball Wicked $7.99 235 87% 7.1k $56k (exactly $56,330) Formslingers
Super Cabbage Kabumi $14.99 125 67% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) Vividesca Games
Infected Mushroom Pinball · EA $19.99 83 68% 2.5k $50k (exactly $49,775) RAYWORKS
Idle Gumball Machine $4.99 255 90% 7.7k $38k (exactly $38,174) Antique Gear Games
ploink $12.99 91 96% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) Pyrocreep

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.