Do I ship it?

GamesBaseballBaseball + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Baseball game?

Baseball + Arcade

Only 15 developers shipped an Arcade Baseball game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Backyard Baseball, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×448 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 12 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 12 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Baseball + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $300 → $4.2k → $2.4k → $133 → $5.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Baseball + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $133 (exactly $133)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $6.9k (exactly $6,893)
Top 5% $671k (exactly $670,729)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 55
Announced 12
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Baseball
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Baseball, Arcade; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cartoon, Colorful, Cartoony
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 4,412 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $140, median $900, 1 in 4 over $6.8k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $140. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Baseball with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PvPFair6 devs · median $7.6k · 9 announced
  2. + StrategyFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  3. + SimulationFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  4. + SportsFair36 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced
  5. + ActionFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  6. + PhysicsDead8 devs · median $119 · 10 announced

All 6 pairs on the Baseball page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
FlatOut 2 older $9.99 19,466 95% 584k $5.8M (exactly $5,833,960) Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Me… (Bugbear Entertainment, ZOOM Platform Media, Jordan Freeman Group)
Super Mega Baseball 3 older $44.99 1,832 92% 55k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,650) Metalhead Software Inc.
Backyard Baseball $39.99 1,210 80% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,451,637) Mega Cat Studios
Backyard Baseball '97 $9.99 2,238 97% 67k $671k (exactly $670,729) Mega Cat Studios
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
Super Mega Baseball: Extra Innings older $12.99 723 91% 22k $282k (exactly $281,753) Metalhead Software Inc.
Backyard Baseball '01 $9.99 662 92% 20k $198k (exactly $198,401) Mega Cat Studios
TOTALLY BASEBALL older $14.99 149 87% 4.5k $67k (exactly $67,005) ZEVO GAMES
World League Baseball older $14.99 113 69% 3.4k $51k (exactly $50,816) HAEGIN Co.,Ltd.
Home Run High older $8.99 155 72% 4.7k $42k (exactly $41,804) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Super Psycho Baseball $4.99 235 92% 7.1k $35k (exactly $35,180) internetcharles
Indoor Baseball $14.99 17 76% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) Snow Day Software
Diceball $9.99 23 69% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) Ducknest Games
holoBase $12.99 14 71% 420 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) Clover Lab.,inc.
Accolade Sports Collection (QUByte Classics) $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) QUByte Interactive
The TEAM game:Corgi&me $5.99 6 100% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) Surgical
Baseball Club $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) BoomBit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.