Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based › Turn-Based + Arcade

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Arcade Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Arcade

Of 35 developers who shipped an Arcade Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 300% on the market; 32 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 300% on the market, 32 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Arcade
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $2.7k → $60 → $2.4k → $4.0k → $4.3k (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Arcade: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,155)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,463)
Top 5% $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 72
Announced 32
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.32

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 300% on the market, supply 240% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Arcade; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$8.32 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $8.32.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 32,634 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $5.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  10. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  11. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced
  12. + MilitaryPoor odds20 devs · median $187k · 15 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Balatro 2024 · $72M STAR WARS Zero Company™ 2026 · $29M Xenonauts 2 2026 · $5.8M Space Rangers HD: A War Apart 2013 · $2.6M How Many Dudes? 2026 · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Space Rangers HD: A War Apart older $14.99 5,848 94% 175k $2.6M (exactly $2,629,846) SNK Games, Elemental Games, Katauri Int… (SNK Games, Elemental Games, Katauri Interactive)
How Many Dudes? $14.99 2,948 89% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,716) Butterscotch Shenanigans
Warhounds $34.99 735 71% 22k $772k (exactly $771,530) Everplay DMCC
Gambonanza $14.99 1,604 74% 48k $721k (exactly $721,319) Blukulélé
Omelet You Cook $14.99 1,523 97% 46k $685k (exactly $684,893) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose
Dice A Million $12.99 1,075 90% 32k $419k (exactly $418,928) countlessnights
Roundguard older $19.99 449 80% 13k $269k (exactly $269,265) Wonderbelly Games
Dicealot $14.99 218 78% 6.5k $98k (exactly $98,035) goodviewgames
ploink $12.99 91 96% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) Pyrocreep
Bearly Brave $9.99 66 84% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Barbaric Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.