Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Arcade game?

Arcade + Idler

Of 386 developers who shipped an Idler Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 482 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×2.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 235% on the market; 482 games are announced against 299 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 235% on the market, 482 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 386
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $539 → $419 → $1.5k → $1.4k → $629 → $2.5k → $1.3k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 386
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,077)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,372)
Top 5% $216k (exactly $215,998)
Developers, 2 yr 386
Released games 682
Announced 482
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 235% on the market, supply 210% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Idler; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 96,250 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 125 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 482 games are announced against 299 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M Scritchy Scratchy 2026 · $3.2M Shelldiver 2025 · $2.5M Bills Must Be Paid 2026 · $2.1M Nodebuster 2024 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
Shelldiver $4.99 16,806 98% 504k $2.5M (exactly $2,515,858) Gagonfe
Bills Must Be Paid $6.99 9,928 96% 298k $2.1M (exactly $2,081,902) Rike Games
Nodebuster older $2.99 13,852 97% 416k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,524) Goblobin
Keep on Mining! $4.99 8,300 93% 249k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,510) EagleEye Games
To The Core older $7.99 5,087 92% 153k $1.2M (exactly $1,219,354) SomethingExtra
Tower Wizard $2.99 8,787 96% 264k $788k (exactly $788,194) Barribob
A Game About Feeding A Black Hole $6.99 3,467 88% 104k $727k (exactly $727,030) Aarimous, Thornity
Chef Knight $5.99 2,433 94% 73k $437k (exactly $437,210) Clover Bite
Space Rock Breaker $2.99 4,671 96% 140k $419k (exactly $418,989) WAKA WAKA
Keep on Mining! - Worlds $6.99 1,899 80% 57k $398k (exactly $398,220) EagleEye Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.