Do I ship it?

GamesArcadeArcade + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Arcade game?

Arcade + Dating Sim

Of 30 developers who shipped a Dating Sim Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×7.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×521 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 34 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 34 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.5k → $716 → $4.7k → $3.5k → $2.9k → $3.2k (still earning) → $8.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,588)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,840)
Top 5% $247k (exactly $247,335)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 130
Announced 34
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Arcade, Dating Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Simulation, Visual Novel
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 6,505 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 9 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Path of Kung Fu $14.99 4,880 72% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,536) 游鲤化龙工作室
Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator older $19.99 827 92% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Strange Scaffold
Yogurt! older $4.99 2,542 75% 76k $381k (exactly $380,537) 430Games, __Ja__ga__imo__
Gal*Gun Returns older $49.99 240 85% 7.2k $360k (exactly $359,928) INTI CREATES CO., LTD.
Wings of Seduction: Bust 'em out! older $12.99 904 93% 27k $352k (exactly $352,289) Ramen Cat Studio
Rabbit Burn older $14.99 680 89% 20k $306k (exactly $305,796) Bio Sapiens
Souper Game $14.99 550 78% 17k $247k (exactly $247,335) SinBeans Studio
Get To Work, Succubus-Chan! older $9.99 480 78% 14k $144k (exactly $143,856) SmallSqurriel, Eternal Alice Game
Horny Warp: Hentai Fantasy older $6.99 654 92% 20k $137k (exactly $137,144) LuminatiGames
Hentai Asmodeus older $1.99 1,757 83% 53k $105k (exactly $104,893) HEGA Studio
Happy Endings $6.99 429 86% 13k $90k (exactly $89,961) Late Night Studios
Big Tiddy Goth Baddie🖤⛓️ $14.99 152 76% 4.6k $68k (exactly $68,354) BanzaiProject
Risky Business $6.90 146 73% 4.4k $30k (exactly $30,222) Nouliz
Body Pay "OMG! The girl with the big titties is too hitting on me!" $4.99 117 73% 3.5k $18k (exactly $17,515) Cheese Burger Studio
Spellbound Beauties $6.99 72 83% 2.2k $15k (exactly $15,098) Lunar Kiss Games
XXX Pussy House $6.99 66 71% 2.0k $14k (exactly $13,840) Dreamers Workshop
Crypterion $12.99 31 96% 930 $12k (exactly $12,081) Roencia
Creepy Creepy Love $4.99 62 93% 1.9k $9.3k (exactly $9,281) BYYONI Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.