Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat

Of 1,912 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,474 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×4.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×869 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 3,474 games are announced against 1,136 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 3,474 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,912
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $5.4k → $3.3k → $3.2k → $2.4k → $2.5k → $1.5k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,912
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.0k (exactly $2,035)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,441)
Top 5% $413k (exactly $412,825)
Developers, 2 yr 1,912
Released games 5,648
Announced 3,474
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 534,506 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 983 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,474 games are announced against 1,136 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Turn-Based Combat

176 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Procedural Generation + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $5.0k 252 devs
  2. Party-Based RPG + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $4.8k 335 devs
  3. Choices Matter + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $4.5k 312 devs
  4. CRPG + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $4.5k 147 devs
  5. Hex Grid + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $4.5k 72 devs
  6. JRPG + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $4.2k 432 devs
  7. Strategy RPG + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $4.2k 353 devs
  8. Turn-Based Combat + Horror Poor odds $4.2k 94 devs
  9. Turn-Based Combat + Auto Battler Poor odds $4.2k 105 devs
  10. Turn-Based Combat + Mystery Dungeon Poor odds $4.1k 57 devs
  11. Turn-Based Combat + Perma Death Poor odds $3.9k 131 devs
  12. Turn-Based Combat + Multiple Endings Poor odds $3.9k 212 devs
  13. Tactical RPG + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $3.8k 344 devs
  14. Turn-Based Combat + Mythology Poor odds $3.7k 76 devs
  15. Physics + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $3.6k 25 devs
  16. Turn-Based Combat + Noir Poor odds $3.6k 15 devs
  17. Open World + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $3.6k 119 devs
  18. Creature Collector + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $3.6k 102 devs
  19. Asynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $3.6k 28 devs
  20. Exploration + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $3.4k 353 devs
  21. RPG + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $3.2k 1,213 devs
  22. Turn-Based Combat + Robots Poor odds $3.2k 36 devs
  23. Turn-Based Combat + Conspiracy Poor odds $3.0k 15 devs
  24. Turn-Based Combat + Steampunk Poor odds $3.0k 24 devs
  25. Immersive Sim + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $3.0k 23 devs
  26. Turn-Based Combat + Roguelite Poor odds $3.0k 539 devs
  27. Tactical + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $3.0k 427 devs
  28. Loot + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $2.9k 96 devs
  29. Turn-Based Combat + Roguelike Poor odds $2.9k 638 devs
  30. Turn-Based Combat + Psychological Poor odds $2.7k 24 devs
  31. Turn-Based Combat + Aliens Poor odds $2.7k 26 devs
  32. Turn-Based Combat + Sci-fi Poor odds $2.7k 180 devs
  33. Turn-Based Combat + Dystopian Poor odds $2.7k 32 devs
  34. Adventure + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $2.7k 666 devs
  35. Turn-Based Combat + Inventory Management Poor odds $2.7k 86 devs
  36. Turn-Based Combat + Dragons Poor odds $2.7k 47 devs
  37. Fighting + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $2.7k 8 devs
  38. Turn-Based Combat + Deckbuilding Poor odds $2.6k 456 devs
  39. Class-Based + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $2.6k 110 devs
  40. Turn-Based Combat + Alternate History Poor odds $2.5k 28 devs
  41. Turn-Based Combat + Western Poor odds $2.5k 13 devs
  42. Turn-Based Combat + War Poor odds $2.5k 123 devs
  43. Turn-Based Combat + Point & Click Poor odds $2.5k 46 devs
  44. Turn-Based Combat + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.4k 291 devs
  45. Grand Strategy + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $2.4k 41 devs
  46. Level Editor + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $2.4k 20 devs
  47. Turn-Based Combat + Fantasy Poor odds $2.3k 916 devs
  48. Dungeon Crawler + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $2.3k 367 devs
  49. Turn-Based Combat + Choose Your Own Adventure Poor odds $2.3k 86 devs
  50. Trading + Turn-Based Combat Poor odds $2.2k 16 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 2025 · $272M Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M Slay the Spire 2 2026 · EA · $138M Darkest Dungeon® 2016 · $106M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader older $49.99 33,701 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,541,390) Owlcat Games
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection $69.99 5,605 77% 168k $12M (exactly $11,768,818) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.