Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Multiple Endings Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Multiple Endings

Of 212 developers who shipped a Multiple Endings Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 433 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×8.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1502 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 433 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 433 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 212
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.8k → $1.8k → $5.4k → $3.6k → $2.4k → $4.5k → $4.7k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 212
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 25% $34k (exactly $33,629)
Top 5% $713k (exactly $713,483)
Developers, 2 yr 212
Released games 600
Announced 433
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat, Multiple Endings; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $20.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $20.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 37,604 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 107 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 433 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ older $59.99 13,923 85% 418k $25M (exactly $25,057,223) Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp.
Volcano Princess older $10.99 45,019 97% 1.4M $15M (exactly $14,842,764) 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher
Griftlands older $19.99 13,440 93% 403k $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) Klei Entertainment
STAR WARS™ Knights of the Old Republic™ II - The Sith Lords™ older $9.99 22,357 93% 671k $6.7M (exactly $6,700,393) Obsidian Entertainment, Aspyr (Mac, Lin… (Obsidian Entertainment, Aspyr (Mac, Linux, & Windows Update))
Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster older $49.99 3,989 87% 120k $6.0M (exactly $5,982,303) ATLUS
CHRONO TRIGGER® older $14.99 12,149 88% 364k $5.5M (exactly $5,463,405) Square Enix
河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu : The Books of Dragon) older $17.99 9,616 81% 288k $5.2M (exactly $5,189,755) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Magical Princess $14.99 7,636 96% 229k $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc.
BLACK SOULS $13.99 7,337 95% 220k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars $49.99 2,049 94% 61k $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) KONAMI
The World of Kungfu: Dragon and Eagle $17.99 4,595 67% 138k $2.5M (exactly $2,479,922) ChillyRoom
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Beast Saga $20.99 2,714 80% 81k $1.7M (exactly $1,709,006) 嘉兴黑曜石(Jiaxing Obsidian)
OFF $14.99 3,093 95% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,390,922) Mortis Ghost, Fangamer
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
Psychic Kung Fu Master $19.99 1,723 60% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) 金十四工作室
LumenTale: Memories of Trey $24.99 1,130 70% 34k $847k (exactly $847,161) Beehive Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.