Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Turn-Based Combat

Of 41 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Combat Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $2.2M, ×1472 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 65 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 65 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $32k → $4.3k → $1.6k → $52k → $299 → $2.1k → $3.0k (still earning) → $7.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 145
Announced 65
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.89

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Turn-Based Combat; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$10.89 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.89.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 29,275 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $2.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Wonders 4 older $49.99 16,899 82% 507k $25M (exactly $25,343,430) Triumph Studios
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Millennia older $39.99 2,976 67% 89k $3.6M (exactly $3,570,307) C Prompt Games
Xenonauts older $24.99 3,815 86% 114k $2.9M (exactly $2,860,106) Goldhawk Interactive
ZEPHON $39.99 1,838 83% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) Proxy Studios
Unity of Command II older $29.99 2,042 79% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) 2x2 Games, Croteam
Elemental: Reforged $29.99 478 73% 14k $430k (exactly $430,057) Stardock Entertainment
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Chaos Front $19.99 252 59% 7.6k $151k (exactly $151,124) Han Zhiyu
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
Global Protocol: New World Order · EA $19.99 85 71% 2.6k $51k (exactly $50,974) Dorlion Interactive
Tactical Annihilation $15.99 56 98% 1.7k $27k (exactly $26,863) B.G. Game Studio
Astro Protocol $11.99 66 93% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) Null Vector Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.