Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Turn-Based Combat game?

Loot + Turn-Based Combat

Of 96 developers who shipped a Loot Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 143 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×894 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 143 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 143 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 96
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.7k → $12k → $5.4k → $5.4k → $2.2k → $4.1k → $6.3k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 96
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,936)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,503)
Top 5% $561k (exactly $561,226)
Developers, 2 yr 96
Released games 227
Announced 143
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot, Turn-Based Combat; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 20,168 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 143 games are announced against 59 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Jagged Alliance 3 2023 · $15M 河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu ： The Books of Dragon) 2018 · $5.2M Battle Chasers: Nightwar 2017 · $5.0M 龙胤立志传 2026 · $4.3M Home Behind 2 2022 · $3.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Jagged Alliance 3 older $44.99 10,882 89% 326k $15M (exactly $14,687,435) Haemimont Games
河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu ： The Books of Dragon) older $17.99 9,616 81% 288k $5.2M (exactly $5,189,755) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Battle Chasers: Nightwar older $29.99 5,573 87% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,014,028) Airship Syndicate
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
Home Behind 2 older $19.99 6,585 86% 198k $3.9M (exactly $3,949,024) TPP Studio
Inkbound older $29.99 3,592 86% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,231,722) Shiny Shoe
NORSE: Oath of Blood $34.99 2,535 56% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Arctic Hazard
Dragon Cliff older $9.99 7,679 88% 230k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,396) Meta Interaction
Stolen Realm older $19.99 3,470 84% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,080,959) Burst2Flame Games
Monster Hunter Stories older $29.99 1,615 90% 48k $1.5M (exactly $1,453,016) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Multiverse Loot Hunter $11.99 2,585 80% 78k $930k (exactly $929,824) 游戏养家工作室
再刷一把2：金色传说 $9.99 2,748 44% 82k $824k (exactly $823,576) 滑稽工作室
Lootbound $14.99 1,248 77% 37k $561k (exactly $561,226) ArtDock
The Use of Life $19.99 764 90% 23k $458k (exactly $458,171) だらねこげーむず/Daraneko Games
Overlooting $9.99 1,405 81% 42k $421k (exactly $421,078) Posing Possums
Sandwalkers $19.99 490 73% 15k $294k (exactly $293,853) Goblinz Studio
Fantasy Idle Dungeon $9.99 736 70% 22k $221k (exactly $220,579) Leaves Games
Dead Grid $12.99 504 93% 15k $196k (exactly $196,409) Atom Void

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.