Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Dystopian

Of 32 developers who shipped a Dystopian Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 100 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $800k, ×1687 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 100 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 100 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $275k → $163k → $716 → $101k → $390k → $2.1k → $359 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $52,174)
Top 5% $801k (exactly $801,199)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 95
Announced 100
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Difficult, 3D, Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 10,589 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 100 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster older $49.99 3,989 87% 120k $6.0M (exactly $5,982,303) ATLUS
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Colony Ship: A Post-Earth Role Playing Game older $39.99 4,087 87% 123k $4.9M (exactly $4,903,174) Iron Tower Studio
Showgunners older $29.99 1,642 93% 49k $1.5M (exactly $1,477,307) Artificer
ATOM RPG Trudograd older $10.99 3,976 83% 119k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,887) AtomTeam
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Capes older $39.99 446 67% 13k $535k (exactly $535,066) Spitfire Interactive
METAL MAX Xeno Reborn older $39.99 444 65% 13k $533k (exactly $532,667) 24Frame,inc.
Jack Move older $19.99 813 80% 24k $488k (exactly $487,556) So Romantic
Sunday Gold older $21.99 687 77% 21k $453k (exactly $453,214) BKOM Studios
Chains of Freedom $24.99 520 80% 16k $390k (exactly $389,844) Nordcurrent
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures
Keylocker | Turn Based Cyberpunk Action $19.99 225 84% 6.8k $135k (exactly $134,932) Moonana
Entropy · EA $11.99 293 94% 8.8k $105k (exactly $105,392) Lovely Hellplace
Sonny Legacy Collection $9.99 337 91% 10k $101k (exactly $100,999) Krin Juangbhanich
Tarnished Blood 🩸 [Tactic RPG] · EA $19.99 87 88% 2.6k $52k (exactly $52,174) Juggler Games, Nakayama Games
Vestiges: Fallen Tribes $24.99 36 80% 1.1k $27k (exactly $26,989) WanadevStudio
Rangedrifter · EA $14.99 27 100% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Max Schmidt

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.