Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Mystery Dungeon

Of 57 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×8.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×440 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 71 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 71 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $64k → $17k → $12k → $1.5k → $8.4k → $15k → $6.3k (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,468)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,126)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $31,665)
Top 5% $209k (exactly $208,986)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 139
Announced 71
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat, Mystery Dungeon; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Dungeon Crawler, Adventure
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 2,737 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shattered Pixel Dungeon older $9.99 2,106 95% 63k $631k (exactly $631,168) Shattered Pixel
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island $39.99 470 85% 14k $564k (exactly $563,859) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Tangledeep older $14.99 1,075 82% 32k $483k (exactly $483,428) Impact Gameworks
Dungeon Drafters older $24.99 563 76% 17k $422k (exactly $422,081) Manalith Studios
Escape Dungeon older $12.99 817 79% 25k $318k (exactly $318,385) Hide Games
Nightmare Knight ~Sacred Maiden & Fallen Magic~ $17.99 557 86% 17k $301k (exactly $300,613) orzPINEz
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
From Frontier older $15.99 359 96% 11k $172k (exactly $172,212) Doubles Core
Sakura Gozen $16.99 320 96% 9.6k $163k (exactly $163,104) kaniheadcrab
Dungeon Dreams 2 older $19.99 209 90% 6.3k $125k (exactly $125,337) DDreams Games
Dragon Quest Heroes: Torneko's Mystery Dungeon -Classic HD- $24.99 160 49% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) Square Enix
The Crazy Hyper-Dungeon Chronicles $9.99 233 78% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) Fix-a-Bug
Death end re;Quest: Code Z $39.99 58 72% 1.7k $70k (exactly $69,583) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
Paper Animal Adventure · EA $14.99 139 95% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Cuddling Raccoons Studio
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Laura of Reigetsu $17.99 88 81% 2.6k $47k (exactly $47,494) piyokogundan

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.