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Should I ship a Physics Turn-Based Combat game?
Physics + Turn-Based Combat
Of 25 developers who shipped a Physics Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×211 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 52 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $718 (exactly $718) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.6k (exactly $3,599) |
| Top 25% | $9.6k (exactly $9,590) |
| Top 5% | $133k (exactly $132,662) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 25 |
| Released games | 57 |
| Announced | 52 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Turn-Based Combat
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Turn-Based Combat; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 4,292 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Peglin 2024 · $10M 
Phantom Brigade 2023 · $4.0M 
Dungeon Clawler 2026 · $1.7M 
Flick Shot Rogues 2025 · $133k 
Bearnard 2024 · $77k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Peglin | older | $19.99 | 16,626 83% | 499k | $10M (exactly $9,970,612) | Red Nexus Games Inc. |
| | Phantom Brigade | older | $29.99 | 4,412 81% | 132k | $4.0M (exactly $3,969,476) | Brace Yourself Games |
| | Dungeon Clawler | $14.99 | 3,716 88% | 111k | $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) | Stray Fawn Studio | |
| | Flick Shot Rogues | $14.99 | 295 87% | 8.9k | $133k (exactly $132,662) | Butter By The Fish | |
| | Bearnard | older | $16.99 | 152 97% | 4.6k | $77k (exactly $77,474) | Michał Wikliński |
 | Tricking 0 | · EA older | $19.99 | 107 89% | 3.2k | $64k (exactly $64,168) | Full-in Studios |
 | Beast Breaker | $14.99 | 67 95% | 2.0k | $30k (exactly $30,130) | Vodeo Games, Huey Games | |
 | Arrogue | · EA | $11.99 | 71 71% | 2.1k | $26k (exactly $25,539) | PIPAPOU |
 | Boom Slingers | · EA older | $6.99 | 121 91% | 3.6k | $25k (exactly $25,374) | Boom Corp |
 | Racingmaybe | older | $9.99 | 77 100% | 2.3k | $23k (exactly $23,077) | Jhoffis |
 | Critter Crossfire | $14.99 | 31 90% | 930 | $14k (exactly $13,941) | Evan Polekoff | |
 | Infest | $14.99 | 24 75% | 720 | $11k (exactly $10,793) | Chute Apps | |
 | 100FRIENDS | $9.99 | 32 87% | 960 | $9.6k (exactly $9,590) | TWIN PIXELS | |
 | SOULCOOM | · EA | $19.99 | 14 50% | 420 | $8.4k (exactly $8,396) | 2DXLABS |
 | Balaball | $5.99 | 32 96% | 960 | $5.8k (exactly $5,750) | ZHR | |
 | Rutrum | $14.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $4.5k (exactly $4,497) | uncertainkey |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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