Do I ship it?

Games › Trading › Trading + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Turn-Based Combat game?

Trading + Turn-Based Combat

Only 16 developers shipped a Trading Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 九州：立志, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $84k, ×178 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 41 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 41 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $80k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,249)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,748)
Top 5% $85k (exactly $84,530)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 39
Announced 41
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 743 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $84k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Port Royale 4 2020 · $1.7M Star Traders: Frontiers 2018 · $1.7M Horizon's Gate 2020 · $727k Dust to the End 2021 · $387k 九州：商旅（Nine Provinces: Caravan） 2021 · $292k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Star Traders: Frontiers older $14.99 3,672 83% 110k $1.7M (exactly $1,651,298) Trese Brothers
Horizon's Gate older $19.99 1,213 94% 36k $727k (exactly $727,436) Rad Codex
Dust to the End older $11.99 1,076 78% 32k $387k (exactly $387,037) Haojoy Game, Zjoy Game
九州：商旅（Nine Provinces: Caravan） older $8.99 1,082 90% 32k $292k (exactly $291,815) BigLight.Games, Xbgzs
Caravaneer 2 older $5.99 535 94% 16k $96k (exactly $96,140) Dmitry Zheltobriukhov
九州：立志 $11.99 235 81% 7.1k $85k (exactly $84,530) Xbgzs
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
Trapper: Drug Dealing RPG · EA older $19.99 102 88% 3.1k $61k (exactly $61,169) Lathon Gaming
Inn Legend · EA older $7.99 254 80% 7.6k $61k (exactly $60,884) AppleCoffee
Apocalypse: The Last RV · EA $4.99 159 68% 4.8k $24k (exactly $23,802) 光年切片工作室
Warp to Sector One · EA $11.99 41 92% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) hextor.Games
NTR LIFE $3.99 70 74% 2.1k $8.4k (exactly $8,379) Jpegsama
Commander Bug Wars $9.99 18 83% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) GoldenGod Games
RolemIAster · EA $5.99 23 56% 690 $4.1k (exactly $4,133) ABAFE
Orbit Economica $24.99 3 66% 90 $2.2k (exactly $2,249) Phoenix Smith
MA 2 – President Simulator $4.99 13 69% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Oxiwyle Inc.
GuildMestar $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) OffPath LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.