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Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat Open World game?
Open World + Turn-Based Combat
Of 119 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Combat Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 219 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×2.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $650; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×834 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 219 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $648 (exactly $648) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.6k (exactly $3,597) |
| Top 25% | $37k (exactly $37,181) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 119 |
| Released games | 422 |
| Announced | 219 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Turn-Based Combat
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Turn-Based Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Tactics, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $20.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $20.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 44,726 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $650. 8 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 219 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition 2021 · $51M 
Wartales 2023 · $34M 
Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition 2015 · $33M 
Wandering Sword 2023 · $28M 
Stoneshard 2020 · EA · $26M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition | older | $49.99 | 34,157 83% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $51,225,253) | Owlcat Games |
| | Wartales | older | $34.99 | 32,118 86% | 964k | $34M (exactly $33,714,265) | Shiro Games |
| | Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition | older | $39.99 | 27,485 88% | 825k | $33M (exactly $32,973,754) | Larian Studios |
| | Wandering Sword | older | $24.99 | 37,034 94% | 1.1M | $28M (exactly $27,764,390) | The Swordman Studio |
| | Stoneshard | · EA older | $24.99 | 34,149 74% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,601,505) | Ink Stains Games |
 | OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ | older | $59.99 | 13,923 85% | 418k | $25M (exactly $25,057,223) | Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp. |
 | OCTOPATH TRAVELER II | older | $59.99 | 13,407 93% | 402k | $24M (exactly $24,128,578) | Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp. |
 | Wasteland 3 | older | $39.99 | 17,263 84% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,710,421) | inXile Entertainment |
 | For The King | older | $19.99 | 31,038 87% | 931k | $19M (exactly $18,613,489) | IronOak Games |
 | FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster | older | $29.99 | 19,857 87% | 596k | $18M (exactly $17,865,343) | Square Enix |
 | Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection | $69.99 | 5,605 77% | 168k | $12M (exactly $11,768,818) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | Caves of Qud | $29.99 | 11,892 94% | 357k | $11M (exactly $10,699,232) | Freehold Games | |
 | 龙胤立志传 | $19.99 | 7,153 77% | 215k | $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) | TPP Studio | |
 | BLACK SOULS | $13.99 | 7,337 95% | 220k | $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) | Eeny, meeny, miny, moe? | |
 | BLACK SOULS II | $13.99 | 5,277 97% | 158k | $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) | Eeny, meeny, miny, moe? | |
 | Beast Saga | $20.99 | 2,714 80% | 81k | $1.7M (exactly $1,709,006) | 嘉兴黑曜石(Jiaxing Obsidian) | |
 | Stellar Tactics | $24.99 | 1,666 77% | 50k | $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) | Don Wilkins | |
 | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software | |
 | Destiny of Immortal | · EA | $11.99 | 1,763 80% | 53k | $634k (exactly $634,151) | LeiYun Games |
 | NITRO GEN OMEGA | $29.99 | 398 83% | 12k | $358k (exactly $358,081) | DESTINYbit |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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