Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Psychological

Of 24 developers who shipped a Psychological Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×749 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 58 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 58 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $1.2k → $2.9k → $3.9k → $9.0k → $2.4k (still earning) → $6.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Top 25% $6.9k (exactly $6,886)
Top 5% $356k (exactly $355,861)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 51
Announced 58
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Multiple Endings
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 2,825 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $6.8k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
All Quiet in the Trenches · EA older $24.99 921 90% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Totally Not Aliens
MONARK older $59.99 209 72% 6.3k $376k (exactly $376,137) FURYU Corporation
Deep Sleep: Labyrinth of the Forsaken $19.99 595 94% 18k $357k (exactly $356,822) scriptwelder
The NOexistenceN of Morphean Paradox : The Forest of Silver Shallots · EA $6.99 1,697 72% 51k $356k (exactly $355,861) 0x0Real Studio
BLUE REFLECTION Quartet $49.99 140 57% 4.2k $210k (exactly $209,958) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Star Knightess Aura $24.99 211 86% 6.3k $158k (exactly $158,187) AuraGamedev
Dragon Spirits 2 older $13.99 137 84% 4.1k $57k (exactly $57,499) FHNBHJ
An Outcry older $9.99 102 92% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,569) Quinn K.
Legend of Hand older $7.99 92 91% 2.8k $22k (exactly $22,052) Cloak and Dagger Games
Card Detective older $3.99 145 73% 4.4k $17k (exactly $17,356) 神探饭店制作组
Who's Hungry? $4.99 60 100% 1.8k $9.0k (exactly $8,982) Daniel Fernández
Chainsaw $4.99 46 95% 1.4k $6.9k (exactly $6,886) ikiru997
Graphite $8.99 25 100% 750 $6.7k (exactly $6,742) RipRed
Isla Hearts $9.99 21 76% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Isla Systems
Little One $10.00 18 100% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,400) Tristan O.
Muffles' Life Sentence $11.99 12 100% 360 $4.3k (exactly $4,316) BossyPino

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.