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Should I ship an Exploration Turn-Based Combat game?
Exploration + Turn-Based Combat
Of 353 developers who shipped an Exploration Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 759 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×7.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×869 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 759 games are announced against 198 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.4k (exactly $3,448) |
| Top 25% | $33k (exactly $33,289) |
| Top 5% | $413k (exactly $412,825) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 353 |
| Released games | 1,054 |
| Announced | 759 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Exploration
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Turn-Based Combat
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Exploration, Turn-Based Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, JRPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 221,522 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 181 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 759 games are announced against 198 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + SpaceshipsFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + WuxiaPoor odds
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Martial ArtsPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + FMVPoor odds
- + FarmingPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 | $49.99 | 181,667 95% | 5.5M | $272M (exactly $272,446,000) | Sandfall Interactive | |
| | Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition | older | $49.99 | 34,157 83% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $51,225,253) | Owlcat Games |
| | Temtem | older | $44.99 | 31,263 82% | 938k | $42M (exactly $42,195,671) | Crema |
| | Wartales | older | $34.99 | 32,118 86% | 964k | $34M (exactly $33,714,265) | Shiro Games |
| | Age of Wonders 4 | older | $49.99 | 16,899 82% | 507k | $25M (exactly $25,343,430) | Triumph Studios |
| | Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden | older | $34.99 | 13,305 89% | 399k | $14M (exactly $13,966,258) | The Bearded Ladies |
| | Sea of Stars: Sunset Edition | older | $34.99 | 12,060 87% | 362k | $13M (exactly $12,659,382) | Sabotage Studio |
| | 觅长生 | older | $14.99 | 27,072 93% | 812k | $12M (exactly $12,174,278) | Chalcedony Network |
| | Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection | $69.99 | 5,605 77% | 168k | $12M (exactly $11,768,818) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
| | FINAL FANTASY IX | older | $20.99 | 12,447 95% | 373k | $7.8M (exactly $7,837,876) | Square Enix |
| | Look Outside | $9.99 | 13,586 98% | 408k | $4.1M (exactly $4,071,724) | Francis Coulombe | |
| | BLACK SOULS | $13.99 | 7,337 95% | 220k | $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) | Eeny, meeny, miny, moe? | |
| | Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars | $49.99 | 2,049 94% | 61k | $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) | KONAMI | |
| | The World of Kungfu: Dragon and Eagle | $17.99 | 4,595 67% | 138k | $2.5M (exactly $2,479,922) | ChillyRoom | |
| | Aurelia | $19.99 | 2,253 94% | 68k | $1.4M (exactly $1,351,124) | MirthalGames | |
| | Atelier Resleriana: The Red Alchemist & the White Guardian | $59.99 | 714 89% | 21k | $1.3M (exactly $1,284,986) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
| | Stellar Tactics | $24.99 | 1,666 77% | 50k | $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) | Don Wilkins | |
| | The Nameless: Slay Dragon | $17.99 | 2,050 91% | 62k | $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) | The Nameless Epic |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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