Do I ship it?

GamesExplorationExploration + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Turn-Based Combat game?

Exploration + Turn-Based Combat

Of 353 developers who shipped an Exploration Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 759 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×7.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×869 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 759 games are announced against 198 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 759 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Exploration + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 353
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $13k → $4.8k → $5.4k → $2.4k → $3.7k → $3.2k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Exploration + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 353
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,448)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $33,289)
Top 5% $413k (exactly $412,825)
Developers, 2 yr 353
Released games 1,054
Announced 759
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Exploration, Turn-Based Combat; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, JRPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 221,522 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $33k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 181 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 759 games are announced against 198 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Exploration with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair22 devs · median $8.1k · 26 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  3. + SpaceshipsFair22 devs · median $3.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair122 devs · median $2.2k · 109 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds12 devs · median $192k · 35 announced
  7. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + Martial ArtsPoor odds25 devs · median $69k · 90 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds146 devs · median $58k · 354 announced
  10. + MMORPGPoor odds24 devs · median $52k · 213 announced
  11. + FMVPoor odds45 devs · median $27k · 76 announced
  12. + FarmingPoor odds41 devs · median $24k · 58 announced

All 258 pairs on the Exploration page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Age of Wonders 4 older $49.99 16,899 82% 507k $25M (exactly $25,343,430) Triumph Studios
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden older $34.99 13,305 89% 399k $14M (exactly $13,966,258) The Bearded Ladies
Sea of Stars: Sunset Edition older $34.99 12,060 87% 362k $13M (exactly $12,659,382) Sabotage Studio
觅长生 older $14.99 27,072 93% 812k $12M (exactly $12,174,278) Chalcedony Network
Monster Hunter Stories 3: Twisted Reflection $69.99 5,605 77% 168k $12M (exactly $11,768,818) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
FINAL FANTASY IX older $20.99 12,447 95% 373k $7.8M (exactly $7,837,876) Square Enix
Look Outside $9.99 13,586 98% 408k $4.1M (exactly $4,071,724) Francis Coulombe
BLACK SOULS $13.99 7,337 95% 220k $3.1M (exactly $3,079,339) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars $49.99 2,049 94% 61k $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) KONAMI
The World of Kungfu: Dragon and Eagle $17.99 4,595 67% 138k $2.5M (exactly $2,479,922) ChillyRoom
Aurelia $19.99 2,253 94% 68k $1.4M (exactly $1,351,124) MirthalGames
Atelier Resleriana: The Red Alchemist & the White Guardian $59.99 714 89% 21k $1.3M (exactly $1,284,986) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.