Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Turn-Based Combat

Of 23 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Combat Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×2.0 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×163 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 34 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 34 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $479 → $22k → $300 → $239 → $3.0k → $2.3k → $24k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $36,330)
Top 5% $245k (exactly $244,718)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 54
Announced 34
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Turn-Based Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 8,052 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
ATOM RPG Trudograd older $10.99 3,976 83% 119k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,887) AtomTeam
The Monster Breeder $29.99 272 91% 8.2k $245k (exactly $244,718) Fantasy Creations
Tales of Justice Academy: Winds Arise $10.99 460 71% 14k $152k (exactly $151,662) 九芽川 Ninth Leaf
Mechajammer older $12.99 190 48% 5.7k $74k (exactly $74,043) Whalenought Studios
Tricking 0 · EA older $19.99 107 89% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Full-in Studios
Retro Arcade Shop Simulator · EA $9.99 208 88% 6.2k $62k (exactly $62,338) Alt Tab Game
Trapper: Drug Dealing RPG · EA older $19.99 102 88% 3.1k $61k (exactly $61,169) Lathon Gaming
Dragon Creek older $14.99 133 87% 4.0k $60k (exactly $59,810)
Global Protocol: New World Order · EA $19.99 85 71% 2.6k $51k (exactly $50,974) Dorlion Interactive
Mirklurk: Every Step Matters · EA $11.99 101 95% 3.0k $36k (exactly $36,330) Edym Pixels
Night of The Black Goat $19.99 55 83% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) サークルREN
Magic Inn · EA $14.99 68 82% 2.0k $31k (exactly $30,580) Purpledoor Studios
Sky Realm Idle $6.99 115 73% 3.5k $24k (exactly $24,116) 323Game
Kinky Fight Club 2 $20.00 36 91% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,600) Skyflare Studios, MrZGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.