Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Roguelike

Of 638 developers who shipped a Roguelike Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,155 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×6.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $410k, ×869 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,155 games are announced against 405 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.1 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,155 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 638
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.1k → $9.8k → $9.7k → $5.6k → $5.0k → $3.6k → $2.6k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 638
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,875)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,452)
Top 5% $413k (exactly $412,825)
Developers, 2 yr 638
Released games 1,288
Announced 1,155
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat, Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 262,970 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 261 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,155 games are announced against 405 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Darkest Dungeon® older $24.99 140,790 91% 4.2M $106M (exactly $105,550,263) Red Hook Studios
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Stoneshard · EA older $24.99 34,149 74% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,601,505) Ink Stains Games
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
Peglin older $19.99 16,626 83% 499k $10M (exactly $9,970,612) Red Nexus Games Inc.
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors $9.99 18,587 96% 558k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524) poncle, Nosebleed Interactive
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Super Fantasy Kingdom · EA $19.99 5,630 86% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,376,311) Super Fantasy Games
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
He is Coming · EA $19.99 3,834 84% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,299,250) Chronocle
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
Die in the Dungeon $14.99 3,239 92% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,456,578) ATICO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.