Do I ship it?

GamesAsynchronous MultiplayerAsynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer Turn-Based Combat game?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based Combat

Of 28 developers who shipped an Asynchronous Multiplayer Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×698 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 36 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 36 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $4.4k → $2.9k (still earning) → $7.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $807 (exactly $807)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $62k (exactly $62,369)
Top 5% $438k (exactly $438,458)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 72
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer, Turn-Based Combat; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 2,560 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $62k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  8. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  9. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Battlesector older $39.99 5,064 88% 152k $6.1M (exactly $6,075,281) Slitherine Ltd.
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
Field of Glory II older $29.99 705 87% 21k $634k (exactly $634,288) Byzantine Games
Ozymandias: Bronze Age Empire Sim older $14.99 1,306 89% 39k $587k (exactly $587,308) The Secret Games Company
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island $39.99 470 85% 14k $564k (exactly $563,859) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Wretch: Divine Ascent $14.99 975 75% 29k $438k (exactly $438,458) Ogopogo
Chaos Reborn older $9.99 819 74% 25k $245k (exactly $245,454) Snapshot Games Inc.
Ogre older $24.99 223 66% 6.7k $167k (exactly $167,183) Auroch Digital
Skulls of the Shogun older $9.99 547 92% 16k $164k (exactly $163,936) 17-BIT
Flashpoint Campaigns: Cold War $49.99 107 99% 3.2k $160k (exactly $160,468) On Target Simulations
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
Water Margin Scrolls $9.99 244 40% 7.3k $73k (exactly $73,127) QingHe Games
Paper Animal Adventure · EA $14.99 139 95% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Cuddling Raccoons Studio
Yomi 2 $19.99 104 92% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) Sirlin Games
13 柱庭 / Cabal 13 · EA $11.99 137 78% 4.1k $49k (exactly $49,279) HuanMos Game
Space Imperia 4X $22.99 70 92% 2.1k $48k (exactly $48,279) Breich Games
Eclipse - 2nd Dawn for the Galaxy $12.99 95 57% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) BrettspielWelt GmbH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.