Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Western

Only 13 developers shipped a Western Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Nightmare Frontier, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×223 the market median. Revenue is up 270% on the market; 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 270% on the market, 25 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.5k → $3.4k
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $5.0k (exactly $5,033)
Top 5% $140k (exactly $140,194)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 30
Announced 25
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 270% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 517 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
West of Loathing older $10.99 9,716 97% 291k $3.2M (exactly $3,203,365) Asymmetric
Hard West older $19.99 4,103 74% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,460,569) CreativeForge Games
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
Arco older $19.99 2,185 96% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,344) Franek, Max Cahill, Bibiki, Fáyer
Nightmare Frontier $24.99 187 69% 5.6k $140k (exactly $140,194) Ice Code Games
Star Story: The Horizon Escape older $14.99 104 89% 3.1k $47k (exactly $46,769) EvilCoGames
Barrel Roll $4.99 188 96% 5.6k $28k (exactly $28,144) Barrel Roll
Age of Grit older $14.99 39 69% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) IQ Soup
Blood will be Spilled older $5.99 66 66% 2.0k $12k (exactly $11,860) Doublequote Studio
GUNCHO older $4.99 69 92% 2.1k $10k (exactly $10,329) Arnold Rauers, Terri Vellmann, Sam Webs… (Arnold Rauers, Terri Vellmann, Sam Webster)
Boogey Hunters $6.99 46 84% 1.4k $9.6k (exactly $9,646) Keep The Engine Games
Duelite $6.99 24 83% 720 $5.0k (exactly $5,033) Betaking Studios
Chess, Texas $4.99 27 81% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Studio Apollo
Seven Sinners $7.99 14 85% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) BillysBones, Grable Team
Luck of the Draw $4.99 17 100% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) SuperFake Games
Rootin' Tootin' Lootin' & Shootin' $8.99 6 100% 180 $1.6k (exactly $1,618) Raspberry Jam
Risk & Riches $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Growlery Games
The Curse of Mount Madre $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Kevin Musto

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.