Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train game?

Trains

Of 167 developers who shipped a Train game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 277 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.2k, ×9.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2675 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 277 games are announced against 110 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 277 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 167
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.9k → $18k → $3.9k → $43k → $11k → $6.3k → $3.1k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 167
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $6.2k (exactly $6,237)
Top 25% $56k (exactly $56,129)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740)
Developers, 2 yr 167
Released games 495
Announced 277
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 46,425 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $6.2k, 1 in 4 over $56k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 66 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 277 games are announced against 110 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Trains

37 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Visual Novel + Trains Strong odds $8.0k 12 devs
  2. Open World + Trains Fair $21k 27 devs
  3. Arcade + Trains Fair $3.1k 20 devs
  4. Base Building + Trains Poor odds $113k 19 devs
  5. Online Co-Op + Trains Poor odds $56k 13 devs
  6. Sandbox + Trains Poor odds $43k 40 devs
  7. Level Editor + Trains Poor odds $43k 10 devs
  8. Driving + Trains Poor odds $39k 24 devs
  9. Crafting + Trains Poor odds $39k 17 devs
  10. Procedural Generation + Trains Poor odds $30k 22 devs
  11. Survival + Trains Poor odds $24k 16 devs
  12. Immersive Sim + Trains Poor odds $21k 33 devs
  13. Building + Trains Poor odds $18k 53 devs
  14. Automobile Sim + Trains Poor odds $17k 20 devs
  15. City Builder + Trains Poor odds $16k 32 devs
  16. Automation + Trains Poor odds $16k 23 devs
  17. Exploration + Trains Poor odds $16k 47 devs
  18. Co-op + Trains Poor odds $16k 17 devs
  19. Physics + Trains Poor odds $11k 27 devs
  20. Resource Management + Trains Poor odds $11k 39 devs
  21. Management + Trains Poor odds $9.4k 56 devs
  22. Roguelike + Trains Poor odds $9.4k 16 devs
  23. Action-Adventure + Trains Poor odds $8.3k 16 devs
  24. Choices Matter + Trains Poor odds $8.3k 16 devs
  25. Walking Simulator + Trains Poor odds $8.3k 7 devs
  26. Simulation + Trains Poor odds $8.1k 88 devs
  27. Transportation + Trains Poor odds $8.1k 55 devs
  28. Adventure + Trains Poor odds $8.0k 46 devs
  29. Strategy + Trains Poor odds $7.2k 71 devs
  30. Economy + Trains Poor odds $7.2k 31 devs
  31. RPG + Trains Poor odds $6.8k 6 devs
  32. Action + Trains Poor odds $3.8k 44 devs
  33. Time Management + Trains Poor odds $3.3k 21 devs
  34. Logic + Trains Poor odds $3.1k 19 devs
  35. Puzzle + Trains Poor odds $3.1k 27 devs
  36. Shooter + Trains Poor odds $1.5k 14 devs
  37. Point & Click + Trains Dead $23k 9 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Factorio 2020 · $201M Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M Transport Fever 2 2019 · $32M Train Simulator Classic 2015 · $18M Monster Train 2020 · $15M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
Train Simulator Classic older $29.99 19,461 73% 584k $18M (exactly $17,509,062) Dovetail Games
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
Choo-Choo Charles older $19.99 16,292 91% 489k $9.8M (exactly $9,770,312) Two Star Games
Transport Fever older $29.99 9,278 82% 278k $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) Urban Games
Unrailed! older $19.99 13,789 93% 414k $8.3M (exactly $8,269,263) Indoor Astronaut
Voidtrain $29.99 8,713 73% 261k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086) HypeTrain Digital
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
Beholder: Conductor $13.99 4,532 91% 136k $1.9M (exactly $1,902,080) Alawar
Denshattack! $19.99 2,910 98% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,745,127) Undercoders
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.