Do I ship it?

GamesOnline Co-OpOnline Co-Op + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Online Co-Op game?

Online Co-Op + Trains

Only 13 developers shipped a Train Online Co-Op game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Voidtrain, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $56k, ×37 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $8.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.8M, ×5233 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 24 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 37.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 24 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9M → $85k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $8.1k (exactly $8,095)
Median $56k (exactly $56,129)
Top 25% $1.1M (exactly $1,075,862)
Top 5% $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 25
Announced 24
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 22,047 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $8.1k, median $56k, 1 in 4 over $1.0M, 1 in 20 over $7.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $8.1k. 2 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Unrailed! older $19.99 13,789 93% 414k $8.3M (exactly $8,269,263) Indoor Astronaut
Voidtrain $29.99 8,713 73% 261k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086) HypeTrain Digital
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
NIMBY Rails · EA older $19.99 2,228 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,132) Weird and Wry
Unrailed 2: Back on Track $19.99 1,794 88% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,075,862) Indoor Astronaut
How 2 Escape older $12.99 684 71% 21k $267k (exactly $266,555) Breakfirst Games
EverRail · EA $14.99 372 69% 11k $167k (exactly $167,288) Aesir Interactive
Train Valley World older $19.99 247 69% 7.4k $148k (exactly $148,126) Flazm
Goblin Company $9.99 282 81% 8.5k $85k (exactly $84,515) BitBorne Studio
Infinite Rails · EA $17.99 104 88% 3.1k $56k (exactly $56,129) Benjamin Voráč
ExoTrain · EA $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Harpoon Games
Distributrains $11.99 26 100% 780 $9.4k (exactly $9,352) Oddwarg
Metrogether Train Simulator $17.99 15 73% 450 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) camelCase Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.