Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Strategy game?

Strategy + Trains

Of 71 developers who shipped a Train Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 103 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2693 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 103 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 103 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 71
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $20k → $14k → $3.8k → $18k → $25k → $5.7k (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 71
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,191)
Top 25% $58k (exactly $57,571)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422)
Developers, 2 yr 71
Released games 201
Announced 103
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 155% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 24,004 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $57k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 6 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 103 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
Train Simulator Classic older $29.99 19,461 73% 584k $18M (exactly $17,509,062) Dovetail Games
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Transport Fever older $29.99 9,278 82% 278k $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) Urban Games
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Last Train Home older $39.99 4,511 86% 135k $5.4M (exactly $5,411,847) Ashborne Games
Mini Metro older $9.99 12,800 95% 384k $3.8M (exactly $3,836,160) Dinosaur Polo Club
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Beholder: Conductor $13.99 4,532 91% 136k $1.9M (exactly $1,902,080) Alawar
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Unrailed 2: Back on Track $19.99 1,794 88% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,075,862) Indoor Astronaut
Subway Builder $39.99 394 59% 12k $473k (exactly $472,682) Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher,… (Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher, Nate Maue, Alex Wohlbruck, Piero Maddaleni, Brooks Flannery)
Railroad Corporation 2 $39.99 376 69% 11k $451k (exactly $451,087) Corbie Games
A Bumpy Ride $14.99 569 97% 17k $256k (exactly $255,879) Cosmoporium Games
Mini Settlers $12.99 592 85% 18k $231k (exactly $230,702) Knight Owl Games
Trainatic $5.99 1,089 89% 33k $196k (exactly $195,693) Ryan Forrester

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.