Do I ship it?

Games › Driving › Driving + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Driving game?

Driving + Trains

Of 24 developers who shipped a Train Driving game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $39k, ×62 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $8.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.8M, ×7751 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 29 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 62.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 29 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $1.5k → $3.6M → $56k → $28k → $256k (still earning) → $27k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $8.1k (exactly $8,095)
Median $39k (exactly $39,141)
Top 25% $256k (exactly $255,879)
Top 5% $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 89
Announced 29
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $18.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Immersive Sim, Automobile Sim, Simulation
Price point
$18.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Family Friendly, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $18.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 20,234 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $8.1k, median $39k, 1 in 4 over $250k, 1 in 20 over $4.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $8.1k. 4 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Train Simulator Classic 2015 · $18M Derail Valley 2019 · EA · $11M Transport Fever 2016 · $8.3M SimRail - The Railway Simulator 2024 · $5.6M Railroads Online 2024 · $4.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Train Simulator Classic older $29.99 19,461 73% 584k $18M (exactly $17,509,062) Dovetail Games
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
Transport Fever older $29.99 9,278 82% 278k $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) Urban Games
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Train Sim World® 2 older $19.99 7,066 82% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,237,480) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
Trainz Railroad Simulator 2019 older $39.99 2,624 77% 79k $3.1M (exactly $3,148,013) N3V Games
Railroader · EA older $29.99 3,343 96% 100k $3.0M (exactly $3,007,697) Giraffe Lab LLC
RUNNING TRAIN | 走ル列車！ · EA $19.99 1,594 97% 48k $956k (exactly $955,922) Novatetsu Games
City Transport Simulator 2026 - Bus & Tram $39.99 526 73% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) ViewApp
Train Sim World® 7 $49.99 278 74% 8.3k $417k (exactly $416,917) Dovetail Games
A Bumpy Ride $14.99 569 97% 17k $256k (exactly $255,879) Cosmoporium Games
Back in Service: a Metro Driver · EA $18.99 448 97% 13k $255k (exactly $255,226) Dominik Vojta
Brno Transit $8.99 589 85% 18k $159k (exactly $158,853) Spytihněv

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.