Do I ship it?

GamesAutomobile SimAutomobile Sim + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Automobile Sim?

Automobile Sim + Trains

Of 20 developers who shipped a Train Automobile Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×11 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.5M, ×3719 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 17 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 17 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automobile Sim + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $3.0M → $9.9k → $43k → $5.4k → $1.6k (still earning) → $27k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automobile Sim + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $5.4k (exactly $5,397)
Median $17k (exactly $16,716)
Top 25% $631k (exactly $631,042)
Top 5% $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 66
Announced 17
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $29.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automobile Sim
effort 7 / 10 · low · tyre, suspension and drivetrain simulation
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Automobile Sim; all of the top 25% also carry Driving, Immersive Sim, Physics
Price point
$29.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $29.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 19,078 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.4k, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $630k, 1 in 20 over $5.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.4k. 4 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automobile Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenStrong odds25 devs · median $5.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair19 devs · median $3.0k · 17 announced
  3. + ZombiesFair10 devs · median $2.1k · 8 announced
  4. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $1.6k · 14 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + Multiple EndingsLong shot14 devs · median $1.0k · 12 announced
  7. + Score AttackLong shot38 devs · median $898 · 35 announced
  8. + ArcadeLong shot162 devs · median $774 · 180 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds46 devs · median $70k · 60 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $70k · 54 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds13 devs · median $35k · 19 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds44 devs · median $24k · 89 announced

All 92 pairs on the Automobile Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Train Sim World® 2 older $19.99 7,066 82% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,237,480) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
Railroader · EA older $29.99 3,343 96% 100k $3.0M (exactly $3,007,697) Giraffe Lab LLC
Train Sim World® 4 older $29.99 3,322 79% 100k $3.0M (exactly $2,988,803) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 3 older $24.99 3,953 79% 119k $3.0M (exactly $2,963,564) Dovetail Games
TramSim Vienna - The Tram Simulator older $34.99 1,339 77% 40k $1.4M (exactly $1,405,548) ViewApp
Hmmsim Metro · EA older $19.99 1,778 91% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,066,267) Jeminie Interactive
RUNNING TRAIN | 走ル列車! · EA $19.99 1,594 97% 48k $956k (exactly $955,922) Novatetsu Games
City Transport Simulator 2026 - Bus & Tram $39.99 526 73% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) ViewApp
Subway Builder $39.99 394 59% 12k $473k (exactly $472,682) Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher,… (Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher, Nate Maue, Alex Wohlbruck, Piero Maddaleni, Brooks Flannery)
Train Sim World® 7 $49.99 278 74% 8.3k $417k (exactly $416,917) Dovetail Games
A-Train 9 V5.0 : Japan Train Simulator Ultimate Edition $39.99 36 77% 1.1k $43k (exactly $43,189) ARTDINK
Japanese Rail Sim: Hakone Town of Natural Beauty and Hot Springs $49.99 20 75% 600 $30k (exactly $29,994) Sonic Powered Co.,Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.