Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Physics game?

Physics + Trains

Of 27 developers who shipped a Train Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×17 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.8M, ×7751 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 28 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 28 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $4.9M → $8.1k → $7.4k → $85k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Median $11k (exactly $10,796)
Top 25% $451k (exactly $451,087)
Top 5% $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 64
Announced 28
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $16.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Immersive Sim, Automobile Sim, Simulation
Price point
$16.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $16.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 19,506 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $450k, 1 in 20 over $4.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M Derail Valley 2019 · EA · $11M SimRail - The Railway Simulator 2024 · $5.6M Railroads Online 2024 · $4.9M Train Sim World® 2 2020 · $4.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Train Sim World® 2 older $19.99 7,066 82% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,237,480) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
Railroader · EA older $29.99 3,343 96% 100k $3.0M (exactly $3,007,697) Giraffe Lab LLC
Train Sim World® 4 older $29.99 3,322 79% 100k $3.0M (exactly $2,988,803) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 3 older $24.99 3,953 79% 119k $3.0M (exactly $2,963,564) Dovetail Games
RUNNING TRAIN | 走ル列車！ · EA $19.99 1,594 97% 48k $956k (exactly $955,922) Novatetsu Games
City Transport Simulator 2026 - Bus & Tram $39.99 526 73% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) ViewApp
Subway Builder $39.99 394 59% 12k $473k (exactly $472,682) Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher,… (Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher, Nate Maue, Alex Wohlbruck, Piero Maddaleni, Brooks Flannery)
Railroad Corporation 2 $39.99 376 69% 11k $451k (exactly $451,087) Corbie Games
Goblin Company $9.99 282 81% 8.5k $85k (exactly $84,515) BitBorne Studio
Infinite Rails · EA $17.99 104 88% 3.1k $56k (exactly $56,129) Benjamin Voráč

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.