Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Trains
Should I ship a Train Sandbox?
Sandbox + Trains
Of 40 developers who shipped a Train Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $43k, ×69 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $9.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.8M, ×7751 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 46 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $9.4k (exactly $9,352) |
|---|---|
| Median | $43k (exactly $43,189) |
| Top 25% | $255k (exactly $255,226) |
| Top 5% | $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 40 |
| Released games | 126 |
| Announced | 46 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Open World, Simulation
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 22,487 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $9.4k. 4 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
Factorio 2020 · $201M 
Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M 
Transport Fever 2 2019 · $32M 
Train Simulator Classic 2015 · $18M 
Derail Valley 2019 · EA · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Factorio | older | $35.00 | 191,814 97% | 5.8M | $201M (exactly $201,404,700) | Wube Software LTD. |
| | Stormworks: Build and Rescue | older | $24.99 | 54,649 90% | 1.6M | $41M (exactly $40,970,355) | Geometa |
| | Transport Fever 2 | older | $39.99 | 26,714 89% | 801k | $32M (exactly $32,048,786) | Urban Games |
| | Train Simulator Classic | older | $29.99 | 19,461 73% | 584k | $18M (exactly $17,509,062) | Dovetail Games |
| | Derail Valley | · EA older | $39.99 | 9,442 96% | 283k | $11M (exactly $11,327,567) | Altfuture |
 | Transport Fever | older | $29.99 | 9,278 82% | 278k | $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) | Urban Games |
 | Voidtrain | $29.99 | 8,713 73% | 261k | $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086) | HypeTrain Digital | |
 | Railway Empire | older | $29.99 | 7,219 82% | 217k | $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) | Gaming Minds Studios |
 | Railroads Online | $29.99 | 5,410 75% | 162k | $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) | Stefan Kelnberger | |
 | Trainz Railroad Simulator 2019 | older | $39.99 | 2,624 77% | 79k | $3.1M (exactly $3,148,013) | N3V Games |
 | Plan B: Terraform | $15.99 | 3,526 91% | 106k | $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) | Gaddy Games | |
 | Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure | $29.99 | 1,867 82% | 56k | $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) | Massive Miniteam | |
 | City Transport Simulator 2026 - Bus & Tram | $39.99 | 526 73% | 16k | $631k (exactly $631,042) | ViewApp | |
 | Subway Builder | $39.99 | 394 59% | 12k | $473k (exactly $472,682) | Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher,… (Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher, Nate Maue, Alex Wohlbruck, Piero Maddaleni, Brooks Flannery) | |
 | Railroad Corporation 2 | $39.99 | 376 69% | 11k | $451k (exactly $451,087) | Corbie Games | |
 | OxyRail | · EA | $14.99 | 949 80% | 28k | $427k (exactly $426,765) | OxygenTech Limited |
 | Train Sim World® 7 | $49.99 | 278 74% | 8.3k | $417k (exactly $416,917) | Dovetail Games | |
 | Back in Service: a Metro Driver | · EA | $18.99 | 448 97% | 13k | $255k (exactly $255,226) | Dominik Vojta |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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