Should I ship a Train game?
Trains
Of 167 developers who shipped a Train game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 277 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.2k, ×9.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2675 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 277 games are announced against 110 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $899 (exactly $899) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.2k (exactly $6,237) |
| Top 25% | $56k (exactly $56,129) |
| Top 5% | $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 167 |
| Released games | 495 |
| Announced | 277 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Trains
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 46,425 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 66 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 277 games are announced against 110 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
All pairs with Trains
No pair with Trains has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
Factorio 2020 · $201M 
Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M 
Transport Fever 2 2019 · $32M 
Train Simulator Classic 2015 · $18M 
Monster Train 2020 · $15M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Factorio | older | $35.00 | 191,814 97% | 5.8M | $201M (exactly $201,404,700) | Wube Software LTD. |
| | Stormworks: Build and Rescue | older | $24.99 | 54,649 90% | 1.6M | $41M (exactly $40,970,355) | Geometa |
| | Transport Fever 2 | older | $39.99 | 26,714 89% | 801k | $32M (exactly $32,048,786) | Urban Games |
| | Train Simulator Classic | older | $29.99 | 19,461 73% | 584k | $18M (exactly $17,509,062) | Dovetail Games |
| | Monster Train | older | $24.99 | 19,950 95% | 599k | $15M (exactly $14,956,515) | Shiny Shoe |
 | Captain of Industry | · EA older | $34.99 | 11,027 90% | 331k | $12M (exactly $11,575,042) | MaFi Games |
 | Derail Valley | · EA older | $39.99 | 9,442 96% | 283k | $11M (exactly $11,327,567) | Altfuture |
 | Choo-Choo Charles | older | $19.99 | 16,292 91% | 489k | $9.8M (exactly $9,770,312) | Two Star Games |
 | Transport Fever | older | $29.99 | 9,278 82% | 278k | $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) | Urban Games |
 | Unrailed! | older | $19.99 | 13,789 93% | 414k | $8.3M (exactly $8,269,263) | Indoor Astronaut |
 | Voidtrain | $29.99 | 8,713 73% | 261k | $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086) | HypeTrain Digital | |
 | Monster Train 2 | $24.99 | 8,647 95% | 259k | $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) | Shiny Shoe | |
 | SimRail - The Railway Simulator | $34.99 | 5,307 85% | 159k | $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) | SimRail S.A. | |
 | Railroads Online | $29.99 | 5,410 75% | 162k | $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) | Stefan Kelnberger | |
 | Train Sim World® 6 | $49.99 | 2,485 78% | 75k | $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) | Dovetail Games | |
 | Train Sim World® 5 | $39.99 | 3,028 80% | 91k | $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) | Dovetail Games | |
 | Beholder: Conductor | $13.99 | 4,532 91% | 136k | $1.9M (exactly $1,902,080) | Alawar | |
 | Denshattack! | $19.99 | 2,910 98% | 87k | $1.7M (exactly $1,745,127) | Undercoders | |
 | Plan B: Terraform | $15.99 | 3,526 91% | 106k | $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) | Gaddy Games | |
 | Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure | $29.99 | 1,867 82% | 56k | $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) | Massive Miniteam |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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