Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelike › Roguelike + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Roguelike?

Roguelike + Trains

Only 16 developers shipped a Train Roguelike in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Monster Train 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.4k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×10323 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 30 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $58k → $6.3k → $79k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $9.4k (exactly $9,352)
Top 25% $79k (exactly $78,521)
Top 5% $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 32
Announced 30
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 335% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 11,341 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $9.4k, 1 in 4 over $78k, 1 in 20 over $6.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 30 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Monster Train 2020 · $15M Monster Train 2 2025 · $6.5M Sunless Skies: Sovereign Edition 2019 · $2.0M Unrailed 2: Back on Track 2026 · $1.1M Frostrain 2 2026 · $123k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Sunless Skies: Sovereign Edition older $24.99 2,661 84% 80k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,952) Failbetter Games
Unrailed 2: Back on Track $19.99 1,794 88% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,075,862) Indoor Astronaut
Frostrain 2 $10.99 374 89% 11k $123k (exactly $123,308) nemonan
Pandemic Train older $16.99 237 57% 7.1k $121k (exactly $120,799) Trigger Labs
Choo Choo Survivor older $4.99 563 85% 17k $84k (exactly $84,281) GTGD
Apocalypse Express $9.99 262 81% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,521) Llamaware Studios
Battle Train $19.99 96 84% 2.9k $58k (exactly $57,571) Terrible Posture Games, Nerd Ninjas
Switchcars older $8.99 164 90% 4.9k $44k (exactly $44,231) Altfuture
Break Siege · EA $14.99 66 84% 2.0k $30k (exactly $29,680) FojoGames
Train Plus Japan Drive Western Japan Trains! Rapid Service Edition $64.99 14 78% 420 $27k (exactly $27,296) SHINISE GAMES, MFC STUDIO
Distributrains $11.99 26 100% 780 $9.4k (exactly $9,352) Oddwarg
Choo Choo Survivor 2 $5.99 41 85% 1.2k $7.4k (exactly $7,368) GTGD
Rhyolite $9.99 21 100% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Long Lost

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.