Do I ship it?

GamesCo-opCo-op + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Co-op game?

Co-op + Trains

Only 17 developers shipped a Train Co-op game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Voidtrain, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×10 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $8.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.8M, ×5233 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 27 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 27 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $475k → $56k → $6.3k → $85k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $8.1k (exactly $8,095)
Median $16k (exactly $15,584)
Top 25% $427k (exactly $426,765)
Top 5% $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 38
Announced 27
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Open World, Action
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 19,464 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $8.1k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $420k, 1 in 20 over $7.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $8.1k. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Choo-Choo Charles older $19.99 16,292 91% 489k $9.8M (exactly $9,770,312) Two Star Games
Unrailed! older $19.99 13,789 93% 414k $8.3M (exactly $8,269,263) Indoor Astronaut
Voidtrain $29.99 8,713 73% 261k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086) HypeTrain Digital
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Train Sim World® 2 older $19.99 7,066 82% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,237,480) Dovetail Games
Railroader · EA older $29.99 3,343 96% 100k $3.0M (exactly $3,007,697) Giraffe Lab LLC
Railway Empire 2 older $49.99 1,966 72% 59k $2.9M (exactly $2,948,410) Gaming Minds Studios
Rail Route older $24.99 2,400 88% 72k $1.8M (exactly $1,799,280) Bitrich.info
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Unrailed 2: Back on Track $19.99 1,794 88% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,075,862) Indoor Astronaut
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
EverRail · EA $14.99 372 69% 11k $167k (exactly $167,288) Aesir Interactive
Goblin Company $9.99 282 81% 8.5k $85k (exactly $84,515) BitBorne Studio
Infinite Rails · EA $17.99 104 88% 3.1k $56k (exactly $56,129) Benjamin Voráč
Calcium Chaos $9.99 52 96% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Lunch Money Games
ExoTrain · EA $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Harpoon Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.