Do I ship it?

GamesAutomationAutomation + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Automation game?

Automation + Trains

Of 23 developers who shipped a Train Automation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×26 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2675 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 34 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 26.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 34 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Automation + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1M → $56k → $12k → $16k (still earning) → $44k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Automation + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Median $16k (exactly $16,484)
Top 25% $187k (exactly $186,507)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 50
Announced 34
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 260% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Automation
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Automation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Sandbox, Base Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 8,633 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.2k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $180k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.2k. 2 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Automation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds36 devs · median $57k · 31 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistStrong odds27 devs · median $4.5k · 32 announced
  3. + Open World Survival CraftFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  4. + HorrorFair19 devs · median $8.0k · 29 announced
  5. + HistoricalFair26 devs · median $7.9k · 24 announced
  6. + UndergroundFair20 devs · median $7.4k · 32 announced
  7. + Class-BasedFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  8. + MiningFair105 devs · median $4.9k · 164 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair112 devs · median $4.5k · 153 announced
  10. + ProgrammingFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  11. + FishingFair40 devs · median $3.4k · 46 announced
  12. + Turn-Based TacticsFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced

All 135 pairs on the Automation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Captain of Industry · EA older $34.99 11,027 90% 331k $12M (exactly $11,575,042) MaFi Games
Rise of Industry older $29.99 3,122 74% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,808,863) Dapper Penguin Studios
Factory Town older $19.99 4,142 90% 124k $2.5M (exactly $2,483,957) Erik Asmussen
Automation Empire older $29.99 2,584 65% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,324,825) DOG HOGGLER
Rail Route older $24.99 2,400 88% 72k $1.8M (exactly $1,799,280) Bitrich.info
Plan B: Terraform $15.99 3,526 91% 106k $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) Gaddy Games
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
InfraSpace older $24.99 1,638 82% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,009) Dionic Software
Subway Builder $39.99 394 59% 12k $473k (exactly $472,682) Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher,… (Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher, Nate Maue, Alex Wohlbruck, Piero Maddaleni, Brooks Flannery)
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
Mini Settlers $12.99 592 85% 18k $231k (exactly $230,702) Knight Owl Games
Craftlings $19.99 311 86% 9.3k $187k (exactly $186,507) ARIANO Games GmbH
Steel Artery: Train City Builder $14.99 305 71% 9.2k $137k (exactly $137,158) SoulAge23
Factory Town 2: Paradise · EA $24.99 151 89% 4.5k $113k (exactly $113,205) Erik Asmussen
Super Loco World - Cozy Train Automation $9.99 329 76% 9.9k $99k (exactly $98,601) Andrii Bychkovskyi
PROFITS 2167: Planetary Resource Optimization & Freight Infrastructure Technician Simulator · EA $6.99 209 98% 6.3k $44k (exactly $43,827) Simple Software Solutions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.