Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Open World game?

Open World + Trains

Of 27 developers who shipped a Train Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $21k, ×14 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $4.0k. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 25 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 25 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0M → $3.6M → $18k → $5.4k → $427k (still earning) → $11k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $4.0k (exactly $3,956)
Median $21k (exactly $20,686)
Top 25% $427k (exactly $426,765)
Top 5% $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 77
Announced 25
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $17.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Automobile Sim
Price point
$17.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $17.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 29,412 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.0k, median $21k, 1 in 4 over $420k, 1 in 20 over $5.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.0k. 5 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  5. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  6. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  7. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  8. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  9. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  11. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced
  12. + MusicPoor odds10 devs · median $148k · 25 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Factorio 2020 · $201M Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M Transport Fever 2 2019 · $32M Train Simulator Classic 2015 · $18M Derail Valley 2019 · EA · $11M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Transport Fever 2 older $39.99 26,714 89% 801k $32M (exactly $32,048,786) Urban Games
Train Simulator Classic older $29.99 19,461 73% 584k $18M (exactly $17,509,062) Dovetail Games
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
Choo-Choo Charles older $19.99 16,292 91% 489k $9.8M (exactly $9,770,312) Two Star Games
Transport Fever older $29.99 9,278 82% 278k $8.3M (exactly $8,347,417) Urban Games
Voidtrain $29.99 8,713 73% 261k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086) HypeTrain Digital
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Thomas & Friends™: Wonders of Sodor $39.99 849 87% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,018,545) Dovetail Games
City Transport Simulator 2026 - Bus & Tram $39.99 526 73% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) ViewApp
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
Train Sim World® 7 $49.99 278 74% 8.3k $417k (exactly $416,917) Dovetail Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.