Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Trains

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Train Action game?

Action + Trains

Of 44 developers who shipped a Train Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2779 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 80 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 80 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Trains
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3M → $9.9k → $23k → $120 → $6.3k → $1.5k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Trains: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,778)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,361)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,745,127)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 101
Announced 80
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Trains
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Co-op, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 20,163 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Train Simulator Classic older $29.99 19,461 73% 584k $18M (exactly $17,509,062) Dovetail Games
Choo-Choo Charles older $19.99 16,292 91% 489k $9.8M (exactly $9,770,312) Two Star Games
Unrailed! older $19.99 13,789 93% 414k $8.3M (exactly $8,269,263) Indoor Astronaut
Voidtrain $29.99 8,713 73% 261k $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086) HypeTrain Digital
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
The Final Station older $14.99 6,739 88% 202k $3.0M (exactly $3,030,528) DO MY BEST
Train Sim World® 4 older $29.99 3,322 79% 100k $3.0M (exactly $2,988,803) Dovetail Games
Zompiercer · EA older $19.99 4,562 88% 137k $2.7M (exactly $2,735,831) DDDimanN
Train Sim World® 2020 older $12.99 5,912 77% 177k $2.3M (exactly $2,303,906) Dovetail Games
Denshattack! $19.99 2,910 98% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,745,127) Undercoders
Unrailed 2: Back on Track $19.99 1,794 88% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,075,862) Indoor Astronaut
EverRail · EA $14.99 372 69% 11k $167k (exactly $167,288) Aesir Interactive
Goblin Company $9.99 282 81% 8.5k $85k (exactly $84,515) BitBorne Studio
Apocalypse Express $9.99 262 81% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,521) Llamaware Studios
Fright Train $15.99 139 89% 4.2k $67k (exactly $66,678) WildArts Games
Magenta Horizon - Neverending Harvest $10.99 175 89% 5.3k $58k (exactly $57,698) Maddison Baek
PROFITS 2167: Planetary Resource Optimization & Freight Infrastructure Technician Simulator · EA $6.99 209 98% 6.3k $44k (exactly $43,827) Simple Software Solutions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.